MWSF '06预测

在游戏后期(仅在主题演讲前几个小时),MWSF预测中没有使用大量像素,但任何值得他的盐的专家都应该愿意事先写下预测。这是我的(除了我自己的推测以外都是基于):

  • 基于英特尔处理器的新款Mac:我拒绝Everyone who’s calling for this announcement seems to be taking stance that it’d be cool for everyone involved if Apple has managed to get Intel-powered machines out the door a few months earlier than expectedBut it wouldn’t be cool for developers who took Apple at its word at WWDC, when they were told that Intel-based Macs could be expected in the spring or early summer.

    Releasing Intel-based Macs now might be popular with the keynote crowd and the tech press, but it would come at the expense of a bit of Apple’s credibility with developersAs late as September 20,史蒂夫乔布斯说了以下regarding when Intel-based Macs would ship: “We said we’d be shipping by next June and we are on track to have that be a true statement,” said JobsAs was pointed out recently inMDJ, if Apple were to release Intel-based Macs now, in January, the next time Apple tells developers they have a year to get on board with something new, developers will feel like they’ve got to drop everything and do it immediately.

    If I’m wrong, and Intel Macs are announced today, I expect to see only Mac Minis, not iBooks or PowerBooks(And whenever they do release new iBooks — today, next month, next year — they’re still going to have FireWire portsApple dropped FireWire support from all iPods because the FireWire components were taking up valuable space; new iPods are dramatically thinner in large part because they no longer have to fit FireWire chipsets insideWhereas with iBooks, no matter how small they make them, there’s going to be plenty of room for at least a single FireWire portFireWire may not be the raging success we all hoped it would be, but there are millions of digital video cameras and hard drives out there that depend on itI’ve never seen any justification for the idea that Apple would drop FireWire from Macs other than that “they’re moving away from FireWire”, the only evidence of which is the iPod, which, as just stated, almost certainly dropped FireWire simply because they want to keep making new iPod models smaller and smaller.)

    结果:错误但至少MacBook Pro有FireWire。

    [边注:Even though they’re using the same case designs for the new Intel-based Macs, neither the iMac G5 nor 15-inch PowerBook have been discontinued — the new iMacs (which are apparently just named “iMac”, not “iMac Core Duo” or anything like that) and MacBook Pros (which name is terrible — I mean just horrible, like some crappy Mac accounting software from 1987) are being sold alongside the PowerPC models, not replacing themNot yet, of courseMy guess is that this means Rosetta is fairly slow, and that anyone who still depends on non-universal-binary apps is going to want a PowerPC machine for the time beingWe’ll find out soon enough what real-world Rosetta performance is like.]

  • iLife '06:是的,呃I can’t believe there are people who think Apple惯于宣布iLife的另一年度更新The big surprise this year is iWeb, the only new product from Apple that has clearly leaked in advanceI’m guessing iWeb is, in fact, a direct competitor to Karelia’s rushed-into-public-beta-in-the-face-of-iWebSandvox- WYSIWYG网页编辑器(有没有人记得HTMLEdit, a not-completely-shabby web page editor that shipped as part of the Mac OS X Public Beta release, but was dropped without explanation for version 10.0?)

    One aspect I’m not sure how to call is whether iWeb will be tied to .Mac for web hostingIt wouldn’t surprise me, but, it also wouldn’t seem fair, given that iLife is a for-pay product, and so is .MacMy guess is that it’ll work with .Mac, but will also work with other hosting environments via FTP and, one would hope, SFTP.

    It also may not be a free-form web page editor, but rather just a publishing mechanism for tossing other iLife content — photos, GarageBand music (but good god not copyrighted iTunes music!), movies — onto web pagesGet these apps out of the game of doing their own “publish content to web pages” code and centralize it in one app.

    结果:对。

  • iWork '06:当然是Pages 1.0 was really rather rudimentary; not bad, but really not very good eitherOverall I think it’s a great strategy to undercut Microsoft Word by being simpler and more obvious, but Pages 1.0 was, simply, too simple. I’ve heard that Apple wants to shift its own in-house documentation to Pages; if so, there ought to be some nice improvements to long-form document writing and publishing.

    Spreadsheet? I say yesApple’s been on a “add one new iWork app per year” pace, and, given that AppleWorks is quite obviously decrepit and almost certainly not going to be released as a native x86 binary他们需要某物可以打开.xls文件。

    结果:Right about iWork ’06, wrong about the spreadsheet, damn it.

  • iPod播放器:I say Apple’s going to do to the Shuffle what they did to the iPod Mini: scrap something super-popular for something much betterI see zero signs of let-up or over-confidence at Apple with regard to their iPod success; they’ve got an enormous market share but are pressing更难than their competitors at pushing innovative hardware designs out the doorI actually love my Shuffle — I use it more than my regular 40 GB iPodWhat I like about it is that it’s something I never have to worry about — I can drop it, I can toss it, I can stuff it in a pocket and forget about it — and yet it’s beautiful and feels great in my handThe buttons have perfect clickabilityAnd so the bar is set high for a replacement.

    结果:错误。

  • 适用于更多Mac的前排:是这太明显了I’m thinking maybe it’ll be part of the iLife ’06 bundle.

    结果:Partial credit: it ships on the MacBooks, but it’s not available for other Macs.

  • 苹果品牌等离子电视运行Mac OS X.:不This doesn’t even make sense.

    结果:对。

  • 苹果品牌等离子电视未运行Mac OS X.:不But maybe, if the TV is sort of like a dumb terminal that draws content from your Mac elsewhere in the house via AirPort.

    结果:对。

  • Mac OS X 10.5预览版:没有I don’t expect Apple to start hyping 10.5 until WWDC.

    结果:对。