本周的Jackasses:Gartner分析师Mark Stahlman和Charles Smulders

昨天苹果宣布其第四季度的财务业绩2006财政年度,其中包括以下花絮:

  • 一个财政季度曾售出的Mac数量最多(160万)
  • 在一个财政年度中销售的Mac数量最多(530万)
  • 强劲的季度利润(5.46亿美元)
  • 毛利率高(29.2%)

两天前,Gartner“分析师”Mark Stahlman和Charles Smulders发表了一篇文章报告推荐Apple放弃计算机硬件业务并将Mac OS X许可给戴尔

Hello, Gartner? 1997 called and they want their advice for Apple back.

现在有jackasses,还有蠢驴我偶尔会犹豫是否会给捣蛋专栏作家和网络博主提供本周杰克斯的荣誉,因为我怀疑这正是他们想要的不一定万博manbetx贴吧本周杰克斯特别荣誉,但声名狼借 - 以及页面浏览量 -“任何宣传都是好的宣传”,那种事情比照John Dvorak, who很高兴地在镜头前向Dave Winer承认,他故意用“狡猾的方式”写东西来激怒Mac用户并让他们链接到他的专栏(他有相同的M.O.自从他作为旧MacUser杂志的后页专栏作家的日子开始。)或者拿这个星期的上一个傻瓜,1 拉里博丁, 谁兴高采烈地沉迷在所有人的关注下,他抢走了Law.com的观点。

然而,这些Gartner分析师应该是真实的,这使得这更加疯狂专栏作家或网络博客可能会合理地决定根据他们自己给予的关注(以及他们为自己的网站敲响的页面浏览量)来保持分数然而,来自Gartner的这些小丑并没有运行博客他们的声誉完全取决于他们的分析质量。

分析师呼吁苹果公司在十年前摆脱硬件业务是一件事,当时公司正在努力争取盈利能力这是一个糟糕的建议,但如果你没有盈利某物必须改变,退出硬件业务肯定会有所改变。

But now? When Apple is selling more Macs than ever before? WhenGartner自己的市场份额研究indicates that Apple is gaining on the rest of the industry? It boggles the mind.

Andrew Donoghue的故事在他们的ZDNet报告中:

However, Apple will not be able to substantially increase this growth on its own because of increasing pricing pressure, Gartner warns.

Apple’s margins for its Mac business, currently around 40 percent, are only sustainable because component makers such as Intel choose to prop up the business, Gartner claimed.

这里的论点似乎是Apple目前的成功不是因为Apple在设计和生产计算机硬件方面做得很好,而是因为英特尔正在“支持它们”。像英特尔是某种慈善机构我不知道Apple与英特尔达成协议的细节是什么(显然这些Gartner分析师也没有),但如果英特尔亏本向苹果公司出售芯片,我会吃掉Core 2 Duo。

Does Apple have a good deal with Intel? I’ll betBut why shouldn’t they? In terms of market share, Apple is #4 in the U.S(并在#3网关上获得快速)这只是原始市场份额,而不是考虑到这一事实所有Apple的份额是在中端和高端市场Apple没有销售任何Celeron或Pentium M处理器 - 从英特尔的角度来看,它们也不会出售任何来自AMD的产品,今天可以从Apple购买的最慢的计算机配备1.66 GHz Core Duo - 一款非常不错的处理器。

I’ve said it before and will say it again: the interesting “share” number for Apple’s computer business isn’t their share of the total units sold; it’s their share of the总利润在PC硬件行业例如,苹果公司在美国的网络上落后了百分之三十市场份额,但Gateway报道了一个失利的净收入近800万美元最近的一个季度苹果公司刚刚公布季度净值利润5.46亿美元现在,肯定有几亿美元来自iPod的销售,但无论苹果公司从Mac销售中获利多少,它都要比800万美元的亏损好很多。

或者看看Gartner心爱的戴尔他们的个人电脑市场份额至少是苹果公司的五倍和他们最近的净收入? $502 million市场份额的五倍,但是利润在这个比较中,计算Apple的iPod利润似乎对我来说是公平的,因为戴尔的数字包括他们从那些赚钱的所有钱DJ们

And speaking of iPods, consider this: If Apple had listened to similar jackasses who told them to get out of the computer hardware business a decade ago, would they have been able to do the iPod? The iPod isn’t a Mac, but it is a computer, and its initial success was largely based on Apple’s hardware design and manufacturing expertise.

在这里很难掌握猛禽的重要性思考实验:尝试为Apple提出建议更差idea than Stahlman and Smulders’s recommendation that Apple abandon its Mac hardware business, but which might still be taken seriously即你不能说“苹果应该把他们100亿美元的现金堆积起来点燃它们” - 这是一个更糟糕的想法,但它不能被认真对待。

我从昨晚开始一直在努力,不能想出一个The closest I’ve come is the converse of Stahlman and Smulders’s advice, which would be that Apple should get out of the software business and switch to Windows (or Ubuntu)这是非常可怕的建议,而且有存在的证据它可以被认真对待 - 但我的直觉是,苹果公司在财务方面的表现会比放弃硬件业务更好。2

告诉苹果放弃他们的计算机硬件业务可能只是Gartner可能提出的最糟糕的建议。


  1. Sort of like a mobile phone plan that lets you carry your unused minutes to the next month, I can bestow Jackass of the Week awards as frequently as necessary, using awards from prior jackass-free weeks. ↩︎

  2. I’d certainly rather use a ThinkPad or Vaio running Mac OS X than a MacBook running Windows, but I’m not saying Mac users would be better off, I’m saying Apple would be, profit- and revenue-wise. ↩︎

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