iPhone的搞笑价格

微软首席执行官史蒂夫鲍尔默在iPhone上,在舞台上在今日美国大卫利伯曼的CEO论坛上接受采访

There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share没有机会这是一个500美元的补贴项目They may make a lot of moneyBut if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get.

强有力的话语和大量有竞争力的FUD包含在一个短段中要记住以下几点:

  • The original iPhones will start at $499 and $599 this June. Future models will be both cheaper and more powerfulLook at what happened with the iPod, which started at $399 in 2001The average selling price for an iPod in Apple’s just-reported Q2 2007 was about $160; a year ago, it was about $200.1

  • “手机”和“智能手机”之间有区别I have no idea how one draws the line, but a good rule of thumb is that smartphones are expensive and regular phones are free (with plans) or very cheap苹果并没有试图卖出1000万美元手机by the end of 2008; they’re trying to sell 10 million智能手机

  • 根据维基百科(citing Canalys), Windows Mobile currently only has 6 percent market share of the smartphone market, far behind Linux’s 17 percent and way behind Symbian’s 72 percentAgain, that’s just for smartphones, not mobile phones in general.

我很欣赏鲍尔默 - 以及在智能手机市场竞争的公司的其他所有高管 - 都对iPhone的问题感到厌烦很难回答有关未发货的竞争产品的问题我的回答只是“我们会看到的”。

回到1月份的一次采访中宣传推出Vista,鲍尔默提出了他最初的反应to the iPhone: “$500! Fully subsidized! With a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the worldAnd it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine.”

对此,我写

这是它将如何发展Starting now, Microsoft will mock the iPhoneThey will mock the price, they will mock the closed software platform, and they will say that phone users demand and crave the wide variety of products in the Windows Mobile market.

But behind the scenes, they’ve already started working on a Zune clone of the iPhone记得their old party line on music players

在本周的CEO论坛采访中,当我们可以期待Zune手机时,鲍尔默说:

这不是你从我们这里得到的概念We’re in the Windows Mobile businessWe wouldn’t define our phone experience just by music手机真的是一种通用设备You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, email, whatever your preference isThe phone really is kind of a general purpose device that we need to have clean and easy to use.

你永远不能接受别人的陈述,他们永远不会发布某些产品,意味着他们真的没有计划建立那个产品(史蒂夫乔布斯因此而闻名 - 反复宣布,直到苹果公司发布一些东西,苹果公司不打算建立这样的东西。)像鲍尔默上面的声明一样,它可以正是他所说的但它也可能意味着他们正在考虑它甚至是在研究它,并且他们不希望任何人知道它即使是苹果风格的“我们不评论即将推出的产品计划”的回应也会让每个人都想到微软working on a Zune phone, because everyone knows Microsoft loves to talk about upcoming products.

但我现在倾向于接受鲍尔默的言论:无论他们对Zune的计划如何,他们都不包括iPhone的竞争对手,鲍尔默真的不希望iPhone销售得特别好。

在过去的几个月中,我已经从各种专家和分析师那里隐藏了一系列“iPhone怀疑者”链接,到目前为止,iPhone的价格是市场上预测厄运的最常见原因。

其中一些专家和分析师都是白痴然而,鲍尔默是一个非常聪明的人,但他对iPhone的看法会让他看起来很愚蠢,如果它成功的话他显然没有得到让iPhone如此吸引人的东西,他对价格和商业用户的双重痴迷令人费解。

也许我是白痴,但就我看来,如果iPhone的初始价格错误,它太低,不太高不要将它与其他智能手机进行比较,当使用计划购买时,几乎所有智能手机的成本都低于499美元将它与iPod的价格进行比较。

维基百科有一个图表显示每个iPod型号苹果已售出价格高端iPod售价为399美元和499美元,直到2005年价格开始下降尽管如此,80 GB的iPod售价为349美元维基百科的图表忽略了当iPod Photo首次亮相时它的售价为499美元和599美元(分别为40和60 GB)。

在过去的几年里,已有数百万人在iPod上花费了399-599美元除了存储容量之外,iPhone还可以完成这些iPod所做的一切,而且还有很多他妈的为什么这些人不会想到在iPhone上花费499美元或更多?

想想人们将花多少钱购买下一代iPod,它可以完成iPhone的所有操作,但不需要手机:Wi-Fi网络,相机,全尺寸触摸屏,带电子邮件和网页浏览的OS X苹果可以(也可能)出售499美元。

Is the iPhone a sure thing? No, of course not — because we haven’t seen itBut the only ifs are technical: Is the battery life at least adequate? Does the multi-touch display work well? Is the gesture-based UI as fun to use in real life as it looks in the demos? Does the music player work about as well as an iPod? Is the hardware reliable? If the answer to those questions is yes, I don’t see how there’s any question that Apple is going to sell them as fast as they can make them(你想拍下599美元的售价499美元吗?)

对于iPhone的价格这个错误的担忧 - 我恳请你记住,这就是问题初始定价 - 与iPhone陷入困境的想法密不可分,因为它不会吸引企业是的,针对商业用户的智能手机市场你好,黑莓但大多数人都没有任何从他们的雇主那里得到的手机 - 更不用说昂贵的手机了我认识的唯一一个从工作中获得免费智能手机的人是阶梯上足够高的人,他们可以轻松买得起他们想要的500美元小玩意儿,他们中的许多人已经打算买自己的iPhone另一方面,我认识的人自己在iPod上花了至少249美元。

Why worry about the iPhone’s appeal to corporate IT? The iPod isn’t marketed to businesses and Apple has sold 100 million of themiPod上市销售,也是iPhoneRIM在最近一个季度销售了200万台黑莓设备;苹果销售了1050万台iPod在同一时期。

这两个市场之间存在着巨大而根本的差异通常,企业希望为员工购买最便宜的东西在为自己购买时,人们希望购买他们能买得起的最好东西。

至于微软,我认为苹果很快就会在手机操作系统市场份额中迅速传递它们 - 比如两年内Apple在这里处于有利地位So long as they sell enough iPhones during the first year or so that it isn’t considered a flop — which seems to be a sure thing, frankly — even if they remain behind Microsoft in terms of market share, Apple can say, “Well, hey, we just got started in this market.”

But if Apple actually draws even with Microsoft within a year or two — what’s Microsoft’s excuse? This is a market Microsoft has been after for a long time, going back to when Windows Mobile was marketed asWindows CE,a.k.a“WinCE”(谁想出那样的名字?WINCE?)为什么将手机市场视为Xbox和Zune等消费市场?

Microsoft, Palm, Motorola, Sony, the other phone carriers (and maybe even Cingular, too) — the executives running these companies clearly have no idea how much the software user experience matters when you’re trying to create a gadget with iPod-like appeal如果他们真的明白,他们就不会在过去的十年中销售带有如此糟糕用户界面的手机。

我们会看到史蒂夫鲍尔默认为iPhone的价格有多好。


  1. 资源:MDJ, 27 April 2007. ↩︎