产品转型

在Apple最近一次7月25日的季度收益电话会议上,首席财务官Peter Oppenheimer被问到为什么Apple对本季度(2007年第四季度)的指导仅为每股65美分,远低于他们在第三季度预订的每股92美分。

正如福布斯的Brian Caulfield所说,奥本海默给出了一个有趣的答案

Oppenheimer gave three reasons for the shift, two prosaic, and one very tantalizingApple’s back-to-school product promotions will cost the companyPrices are rising for key parts, such as the flash memory that powers the iPhone and many of Apple’s music players. Finally, Oppenheimer said, there will be a “product transition I can’t get into.”

当我链接到这个,我写

以下是我对此的解释I think what he’s saying is that Apple is going to replace an older product which currently has high margins with a new product that, at least at first, will have significantly lower marginsImagine, say, new iPods that sell at the same prices as current models but which cost more to produceOr maybe it means they’re going to switch to the subscription-based accounting for more products?

讨厌说“我告诉过你”,1但是,我认为,这正是本周发生的事情。

Apple目前的季度涵盖7月,8月和9月自电话会议以来,他们有两个产品介绍:一个月前的iMac / iLife / iWork活动,以及本周的iPod / iPhone / iTunes活动。

上个月的产品公告都不会导致收益下降如果有的话,iMacs,iLife和iWork的利润将高于上一季度,而不是更低。

So what did Apple announce on Wednesday this week that would lead to a decline in earnings? With regard to profit margins:

  • Certainly not the Shuffle, which neither changed technically nor dropped in price.
  • 不是iTunesIf anything, this week’s announcements of the iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store and ringtone sales will increase earnings, not decrease.
  • 可能不是iPod Nanos或ClassicsThe new Nanos sport a significantly improved display — bigger, brighter, and with a 204 ppi densityThe Classics sport much higher-capacity hard drivesBoth are very nice updates from last year’s models, but neither seems so significant as to bring about a 30 percent decline in earnings.

这让iPod Touch和价格下降了399美元的iPhone我怀疑,这些产品的利润率可能低于其他iPod和大多数Apple产品售价299美元的8 GB Touch售价仅比199美元8 GB Nano高出100美元特定Apple通常的保证金大约30%,Touch的生产成本仅比Nano高出70美元更大(并且具有多点触控功能)的显示器,更快的处理器和Wi-Fi让我的成本超过70美元。

关于iPhone的降价,当然可能在399美元的苹果公司现在可以获得通常的30%利润率,599美元的首次亮相价格确实非常有利可图但也有可能是苹果公司预定其通常的保证金为599美元,而现在为399美元,为了建立市场份额,它现在以低于平时的利润销售iPhone。

无论哪种方式,无论是否一直都在计划,我认为iPhone降价并不是Oppenheimer提到的“产品转型”。

对Apple的假设最可能的解释2本季度的盈利下降是因为苹果正在将额外的产品转移到基于订阅的会计苹果4月宣布回来that they would account for iPhone earnings over a 24-month period, so as to be able to provide additional features via future software updates without charging for them(记得2美元的费用for the 802.11n AirPort enabler?) This means that no matter how much profit the iPhone generated at $599 or does now at $399, only a fraction was going to be booked this quarter, price drop or not.

似乎几乎可以肯定(至少对我而言)iPod Touch也将通过订阅来计算如果您认为iPhone主屏幕上有其他图标的空白点,请查看iPod TouchThe iPod Touch and iPhone are clearly sibling products running variants of the exact same system software; I expect future software updates to appear simultaneously for both products.

也许苹果公司正在转向基于订阅的整个新iPod系列会计如果是这样的话,这意味着对于当前季度,他们将预订不到利润的1/24所有new iPods sold this month; the remaining profit will be spread over the next 23 months.


  1. Where by “hate” I mean “love”. ↩︎

  2. I say “supposed” given that Apple’s guidance is notoriously pessimistic; exactly no one will be surprised if they come in far ahead of their 65 cents per share guidance. ↩︎