Yet Another in the Ongoing Series Wherein I Examine a Piece of Supposedly Serious Apple Analysis From a Major Media Outlet and Dissect Its Inaccuracies, Fabrications, and Exaggerations Point-by-Point, Despite the Fact That No Matter How Egregious the Inaccuracies / Fabrications / Exaggerations, Such Pieces Inevitably Lead to Accusations That I’m Some Sort of Knee-Jerk Shill Who Rails Against Anything ‘Anti-Apple’ Simply for the Sake of Defending Apple, and if I Love Apple So Much Why Don’t I Just Marry Them?

来自Adam LPenenberg十二月为Fast Company撰写封面故事,“All Eyes on Apple: Will the gray light of January cool the world’s hottest company?“:

然而,这对苹果来说也是一个危险的时刻In a way the company has never seen, the barbarians are massing at the gates.


From hardware to software to services, major competitors with serious R&D and marketing budgets are laying siege to the House of Jobs.


As Apple moves into new markets, it has made powerful new enemies, some working in concertNokia, for example, is banding with telecom companies to offer its own touch-screen hardware in an effort to sway subscribers from the iPhone and Apple’s exclusive partner, AT&T.

(a) AT&T is only Apple’s iPhone partner in the U.S.; and (b) Nokia has been “banding with telecom companies” forever, because, uh, Nokia’s core business is “banding with telecom companies to sell new phones”, right?

MP3 players from the likes of iRiver, Microsoft, SanDisk, and Toshiba are getting slicker all the time, targeting the iPod at a fraction of the cost.

iRiver?; Microsoft’s Zune players costs完全相同的as corresponding iPods; SanDisk’s second-place success is not new and doesn’t seem to be hurting the iPod at all, but rather seems to be coming at the expense of all the various “other” player manufacturers; and, as for Toshiba, their最畅销在亚马逊的当前,MP3播放器的时间为#97 - 九十九 - 他妈的七畅销书清单(甚至索尼也有比东芝更畅销的玩家。)

经验证据表明,Apple的iPod专营权比以往任何时候都好iPod的销售增长不会继续有增无减 - 最终,按照这个速度,他们将会耗尽那些尚未拥有的人在我看来,对iPod的最大威胁 - 或者至少是iPod对苹果公司股票价值的影响 - 即将出现:即使利润仍然强劲,苹果将使手持媒体播放器的整个潜在市场饱和并且增长将放缓我会说,这是苹果愿意接受的问题。

It’s weeks before Christmas, and all through the house, there’s an iPhone, a touch screen, and no need for a mouseBut Jobs, the “brilliant,” “visionary” “genius” with a knack for creating “insanely great” consumer products, may well be wondering whether next year will be different圣诞快乐,史蒂夫Enjoy it while it lasts.

那些未归因的引用让我怀疑Penenberg是一个“没有天赋”的“黑客”,Fast Company的“复制编辑”只不过是右键点击Microsoft Word中强调的绿色波浪形语法检查器说真的,引号怎么了?

But none of that will stop a growing number of adversaries from doing all they can to pare Apple downNor does it dim­inish the fact that at $185 a share, its stock is far more vulnerable to a stall or even a fall than it was when it was $50 cheaper.

That Apple’s stock price goes through seemingly irrational swings, both up and down, and is outside the control of the company’s executives, is just how the market works这也与本文的前提相去甚远,这似乎是苹果的制品将在2008年遭受痛苦It’s entirely possible that 2008 could be a better year for Apple’s sales and profits than 2007 and but that its stock price could fall; say, if the growth isn’t as fantastic as some investors anticipated, or if the entire economy goes into recession and investors panic.

Jobs declined to speak with us for this story, but on the eve of the iPhone’s debut, he deployed a simple metaphor to chart Apple’s future: “We’ve got two strong legs on our chair today,” he told USA Today“We have the Mac business, which is a $10 billion business, and music — our iPod and iTunes business — which is $10 billionWe hope the iPhone is the third leg on our chair, and maybe one day, Apple TV will be the fourth leg.”

In essence, Jobs was describing a hermetically sealed system, the central premise of Apple’s business model: If a customer buys one Apple device, she’ll buy two, three, even four more — at a premium price — rather than dilute the experience with other brands.

这不是乔布斯所描述的它并没有遵循引用中归于乔布斯的词语的简单含义,也没有任何经济意义iPod成功的关键在于Apple已经将它们卖给了那些没有任何其他Apple产品的Windows用户并且,对于那些客户购买多种Apple产品 - 比如iPhone,苹果电视和Mac - 它可能更多,因为它们比“品牌稀释”更好地协同工作。

In an age increasingly defined by interoperability and technical collaboration, Jobs still refuses to license Apple’s operating system.



He won’t allow music and videos downloaded from iTunes to be played on other MP3 players.

除了所有没有DRM的iTunes Plus曲目,以及乔布斯明确指出的那些曲目广为人知的公开信,他希望看到整个iTunes Store切换到,如果音乐标签允许它。

He won’t permit music downloaded from competing stores to play on the iPod.

除了销售无DRM音乐的任何商店的所有音乐,如亚马逊或eMusic否则,这里有争议的是Apple应该支持微软的DRM平台,以前称为PlaysForSure,最近重命名为“Certified for Windows Vista”微软本身并不支持自己的Zune播放器上面这个13字的句子中有很多愚蠢的东西。

And in enforcing his exclusive deal with AT&T for the iPhone, he went so far as to disable or “brick” the device of anyone who dared “jailbreak” it for use with another carrier, or who downloaded third-party applications for features Apple hadn’t built in.

(a) Again with the “Jobs did it”; (b) only iPhones that were SIM-unlocked wound up bricked by the 1.1.1 update, not iPhones that were “jailbroken” to run third-party apps; and (c) there’s no proof that Apple deliberately bricked解锁的iPhone

Apple has thus far ridden this exclusionary strategy to riches, power, and gloryBut what does Steve Jobs know that Albert Einstein didn’t? Einstein posited that a closed system would become stagnant over time.


As McCourt, the Morgan Keegan analyst, points out, “Each SanDisk generation of MP3 players is getting closer to iPods; the handset manufacturers are arguably making more impressive music-enabled handsets than the iPhone; and try out a new HP laptop with imbedded Altec Lansing speakers — it’s half the price of a MacBook, with a far better audio experience.”

哇,好多了音箱in an HP notebook? No wonder MacBook sales坦克立即出售您的Apple股票。



Sprint has a touch-screen phone that runs “thousands” of third-party applications


And the king of search [Google] has banded together with Apple foes such as Dell, HP, Microsoft, and Samsung to form the White Space Coalition to push the Federal Communications Commission to open up part of the broadcast spectrumIf successful, Americans would be able to use any Wi-Fi-enabled device to access the Web anytime, anywhere, and at zippy speeds — a direct threat to AT&T and Apple, which have a five-year exclusive contract.


Apple is at a moment of choice: If it can stay hot and produce breakout couture hardware indefinitely, it can hold onto its closed model, elite pricing, and huge marginsIn many ways, the world would be a prettier place if it did.

But in an age of convergence and simplification, customers are ever more insistent that computers, phones, TV, and music systems work together.

So (a) customers are “ever more insistent that computers, phones, TV, and music systems work together”, and (b) Apple’s entire product strategy in a nutshell is to produce computers, phones, TV, and music players that work really well together, and the conclusion Penenberg draws from this is that Apple is in trouble吉米尼。

Jobs may have to accept that Apple’s next wave of growth — or energy, as Einstein might have put it — depends on syncing up his products and platforms with those of his competitors.


然而,在拆除这堵墙时也存在风险If the company’s success has flowed from the trendy, gleaming exclusivity of its machines, then diluting that quality could erode the very foundation of the franchise.

相反,除非苹果公司的成功源于其产品设计更简单,更易于理解并提供更好的体验 - 即that Apple products are popular because they’re good, rather than popular because they’re “trendy” — in which case the only serious problem the company faces is that it needs to keep making new products that people want to buy, and their success isn’t really precarious at all.

或者,正如阿尔伯特爱因斯坦一样确实如此, “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”