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长期以来 - 在90年代的整个十年和本十年的前几年 - 苹果公司的故事就是一家公司正在寻找一种不仅仅是“Mac公司”的方式的故事。从收入和利润的财务角度来看,Mac是Apple,Apple是Mac这在两个方面都存在问题首先,它是“一篮子所有的鸡蛋”情景如果Mac已经沉没,公司就会陷入困境其次,Windows的巨大成功严重限制了增长潜力。

iPod是苹果公司在Macintosh之后的第一次突破性成功在近几年的某些季度中,iPod的收入甚至与(或在假日季度)超过Mac收入一致iPod解决了苹果公司作为“Mac公司”所面临的两个问题:它的鸡蛋现在被分成两个篮子,他们进入了一个有显着增长空间的领域。

去年,在首次亮相后,史蒂夫乔布斯开始描述iPhone作为公司的第三站苹果昨天公布的2008财年第四季度(7月至9月)的数据支持了这一数字。

关于Apple报告的iPhone数据,你必须记住的主要事情是他们正在使用基于订阅的会计当你今天购买Mac或iPod时,Apple将整个销售报告为收入这个25美分硬币然而,当你今天购买iPhone时,苹果公司报告的收入平均分为八个季度。

Apple对美国的解释会计法规是,这是他们在两年内提供免费功能升级的唯一方法这就是为什么iPhone OS 2.0是现有iPhone用户的免费更新,但iPod Touch用户的付费更新。

从长远来看,Apple不会从中获得更多或更少的资金这只是一种计算他们所赚钱的方法(Indirectly, Apple clearly hopes that it helps sell additional iPhones, on the grounds that people enjoy getting “free” OS upgrades.) But in the short run, Apple’s iPhone revenue and profit are underrepresented in the company’s quarterly results — only one-eighth of the revenue from iPhones sold during the just-completed quarter appear in the quarter’s results这也使iPhone的数字难以与Mac和iPod的数字进行比较。

因此,Apple现在提供两组季度数字首先,GAAP的结果是基于订阅的iPhone和Apple TV会计(美国通用会计准则代表一般公认会计原则.) Second, a new set of numbers — non-GAAP results — which, more or less, show what Apple’s quarterly numbers would look like if they weren’t using subscription-based accounting for the iPhone and Apple TV.

以下是苹果首席财务官彼得奥本海默在开幕致辞中所说的话昨天的分析师电话会议

As we reported in our press release, iPhone unit sales grew significantly in the September quarter, resulting in a material increase in the amount of iPhone revenue and product costs that had been deferred for recognition in future periodsSpecifically, deferred revenue from iPhone and Apple TV sales grew to $5.8 billion at the end of the September quarter, an increase of nearly $3.8 billion from the end of the June quarterIf iPhone revenue was not deferred, iPhone would have represented 39% of Apple’s revenue in the September quarter.

我认为,这意味着苹果上一季度iPhone销售收入高于Mac或iPod销售收入只有15个月大的iPhone可能已经是公司三条腿中最强劲的And it’s not like iPod or Mac sales are down — compared to the year-ago quarter, Mac sales are up 21 percent in terms of units and 17 percent in terms of revenue, and iPods are up 8 percent in units and 3 percent in revenue.

就iPhone OS平台的发展势头而言,请记住,iPod Touch作为iPod而不是iPhone被放在书本上(而苹果公司并未将这些“iPod”号码分解为特定型号;除了苹果公司的高层管理人员之外,没有人确切知道有多少iPod Touch已售出。)

史蒂夫乔布斯很少出现在苹果的季度分析师电话会议上我很确定你可以依靠乔布斯在过去10年里对这些电话的看法通常情况下,乔布斯已经出现,当时苹果有坏消息要宣布(他昨天的出现似乎是关于解决苹果公司应对当前全球经济衰退的计划。)以下是乔布斯在他准备好的有关苹果iPhone收入和利润的言论中所说的话:

As you can see, the non-GAAP financial results are truly stunning. By eliminating subscription accounting, adjusted sales for the quarter were $11.68 billion, 48% higher than the reported revenue of $7.9 billion, while adjusted income was $2.44 billion, 115% higher than the reported net income of $1.14 billionAdjusted net income that is more than double our reported income — if this isn’t stunning, I don’t know what is, all due to the incredible success of the iPhone 3G.

I would like to now highlight two remarkable milestones resulting from iPhone’s outstanding performance last quarterThe first is that Apple beat RIMIn their most recent quarter, Research in Motion, or RIM, reported selling 6.1 million BlackBerry devices. Compared to our most recent quarter sales of 6.9 million iPhones, Apple outsold RIM last quarter and this is a milestone for usRIM is a good company that makes good products and so it is surprising that after only 15 months in the market, we could outsell them in any quarter.

But even more remarkable is this — measured by revenues, Apple has become the world’s third-largest mobile phone supplierI know this sounds crazy, but it’s true — as measured in revenues, not units, Apple has become the third largest mobile phone supplierLet’s look at the ranking — Nokia is clearly number one at 12.7 billion; Samsung number two at 5.9 billion; Apple is number three at 4.6 billion; Sony Ericsson, number four at 4.2; LG, number five at 3.4 billion; Motorola, number six at 3.2; and RIM number seven at 2.1. Pretty amazing.

So, last quarter: (1) the iPhone was a bigger revenue and profit generator than either the iPod or Mac; (2) Apple sold more iPhones than RIM sold BlackBerrys; and (3) Apple trailed only Nokia and Samsung in worldwide mobile phone handset revenue (and they’re not far behind Samsung).

Jobs followed with this caveat:

Now, both of these things, beating RIM in units and becoming the third largest mobile supplier in revenues are amazing feats but part of this was the result of expanding into over 50 countries and there’s no guarantee that sustained sales will equal initial salesAnd who knows what the future results will be, given the worldwide economic slowdown but we actually outsold RIM last quarter and ranked as the third largest mobile phone supplier in revenues仅仅15个月在市场上就不错了。

他是对的,没有人知道本季度的结果(三周前开始,并持续到12月底) - 但我们可以做出有根据的猜测因为它涵盖了整个假日季节,所以苹果公司10月至12月的季度一直是iPod销售最强劲的季度。

一年前,iPod从第四季度(7月至9月)到第一季度(10月至12月)的销量从10.2增加到2210万两年前,他们从8.7万增加到2100万三年前,6.5到14.0万就乘数而言,分别为2.17,2.41和2.15也就是说,苹果公司在假日季度销售的iPod数量一直是上一季度的两倍多。

我们只有一年的iPhone数据去年,苹果在2007年第四季度销售了110万部iPhone它在2008年第一季度销售了230万部iPhone - 乘数为2.09,与前几年的假日季度iPod销量非常相符。

因此,苹果公司在本季度销售iPhone的可能性几乎与刚刚报道的季度相同如果他们这样做,那将是1380万部iPhone即使他们没有达到这一标准,他们似乎准备在2008日历年销售约2000万部iPhone - 超过其经常声称的1000万部目标的两倍Many analysts doubted that 10 million iPhone goal for the year; Apple might in fact sell 10 million iPhones in a single quarter.

即使是销售平面在本季度,似乎几乎可以肯定,iPhone 3G上市后的前六个月内,它们的售价将超过1000万台。

至于这种增长在iPhone行业中的位置,回想起来微软的预测对于今年的Windows Mobile许可证:

警告标志在那里After boldly proclaiming that it would sell “more than” 20 million licenses to its Windows Mobile operating system by the end of its fiscal year on June 30, Microsoft later scaled that prediction back to “nearly” 20 million unitsThis week, however, the software giant conceded it did not hit its target: The company sold just 18 million units in the fiscal year.

因此,不仅Windows Mobile的增长速度明显低于微软公开预期的增长速度,而且iPhone似乎将超过所有Windows Mobile手机的单位销量结合明年事实上,鉴于苹果公司在昨天的电话会议上承认,包括迄今为止的10月销售,他们已经超过了2008年销售的1000万部iPhone,iPhone可能会很好已经超过所有Windows Mobile手机的总和。

整个iPhone平台只有15个月的历史最便宜的型号仍然是199美元这个市场的增长空间与Apple所见过的不同所以问题是:尽管iPod销量持续强劲并且Mac销量创下历史新高,但iPhone无疑是苹果公司制造的主要产品和平台需要多长时间?

我的回答:没多久。

我认为Apple的执行团队也以同样的方式看待它。