关于Verizon和iPhone Lite的谣言

本周有很多关于报道的猜测《商业周刊》《华尔街日报》苹果公司和Verizon之间的会谈也就是说:Apple正在考虑将Verizon用于未来的iPhone和/或其神话即将推出的平板电脑这不是太复杂让我们来玩“它们里面有什么?”

Verizon公司— Would they want to sell some sort of iPhone model? Yes, of course无可否认,iPhone已成为一件大事Verizon与它无关,它是一个最好的竞争优势由AT&T,Verizon的最大竞争对手没有一个iPhone的竞争对手设备Verizon提供了到目前为止任何好或非常受欢迎(cf该黑莓风暴)和Palm Pre独家冲刺。

AT&T- 对于AT&T来说,iPhone比其他任何手机都要多大多数人决定从哪个运营商那里购买手机,去那里,然后选择一部手机随着iPhone,人们决定他们想买一个,然后去美国电话电报公司(AT&T)一些iPhone用户转向AT&T特别,只是因为iPhone事实上,有些人转而使用AT&T来获取iPhone尽管这一事实,所有事情考虑,他们宁愿买一个电话从另一个载体——通常Verizon,这被广泛认为是美国最好的整体网络覆盖在AT&T的利益非常让iPhone独家AT&T设备只要它可以。

苹果- iPhone对AT&T很重要,但AT&T对Apple来说并不重要美国苹果(iPhone)的最大的市场,但它仍然只是一个国家在一个大的世界刚刚公布的季度,美国电话电报公司(AT&T)160万激活iPhone手机但是苹果销售报告不到380万总iPhone - 所以58%被出售美国美国电话电报公司(AT&T)并不是苹果公司的iPhone合作伙伴他们只是Apple的iPhone合作伙伴在美国我认为美国科技媒体经常忽略这一点,因此苹果公司甚至会对Verizon采取一些不切实际的怀疑态度。

苹果想要他们想要的利润和市场份额诀窍是平衡两者当然苹果通过独家协议为每部iPhone赚更多钱,但如果AT&T上都有iPhone,他们会销售更多的设备Verizon公司是的,Verizon的网络是CDMA,GSM,因此它要求苹果产生不同的硬件但是有一些Verizon客户不会转向AT&T,但会从Verizon购买iPhone,而我的猜测是这个数字足以让Apple至少考虑生产与Verizon兼容的硬件。

所以,即使苹果更愿意坚持使用AT&T,至少在另一年,我会发现它们是令人惊讶的,如果他们没有至少跟Verizon就听到一个报价,或许更重要的是,向媒体泄漏的调情,保持压力AT&T提供苹果最好的条件。

但至于我认为Verizon上的iPhone是否真的迫在眉睫 - 就像“未来几个月即将来临” - 我怀疑它在上周Apple的季度财务电话会议上,分析师Gene Munster询问为何苹果公司与AT&T保持了独家协议。首席运营官蒂姆•库克表示,:

在美国电话电报公司(AT&T),基因,我们认为美国电话电报公司(AT&T)是一个很好的合作伙伴We believe that they’re the best wireless provider in the U.Sand we are very happy to be doing business with themThey have done a very good job with iPhone, they’ve put the full force and weight of their company behind it, it’s a major strategic thrust for them and so we’re very happy with the relationship that we have and do not have a plan to change it.

然后再煮,应对后续问题任何“技术障碍”:

Well from a technology point of view as you know, Verizon is on CDMA and we’ve shown from the beginning of the iPhone to focus on one phone for the whole of the world and when you do that, you really go down the GSM route, because CDMA doesn’t really have a life to it after a point in time.

众所周知,史蒂夫·乔布斯以嘲笑他们的想法或功能而闻名,只是在几个月或几年之后转变并声称它们是有史以来最好的想法或功能,现在苹果已经接受了它们苹果公司不会宣布重大变化,直到它准备好宣布它们为止,直接的问题被诅咒所以我不会指望苹果的“没有计划改变”AT&T独家永远持续。1

但是CDMA评论并不像误导公司计划今年夏天推出CDMA手机评论是特定的,也不是的东西我们不打算做CDMA,但更多的是沿着CDMA正在全行业发展这只是不是库克会说如果苹果计划在6月宣布CDMA手机,没有CDMA版iPhone,还有没有iPhone for Verizon。2Ask again when Verizon’s next-generation LTE network is running, though.

但这只是iPhoneIf Apple is preparing to soon announce its supposed tablet / mediapad / whatever, and if said tablet / mediapad / whatever is going to support mobile broadband, it could well use EVDO from Verizon without contradicting anything Cook said about CDMA or the iPhone remaining exclusively on AT&T.

(关于任何传统新设备的正确观点的简要插值:请记住,这些平板电脑/媒体播放器/任何谣言正在增长到如果WWDC主题演讲来来去去,而没有提及这个设备,那就是责任人将被责备苹果不释放它而不是责怪谣言记者的错误。“商业周刊”的报道关于声称的新设备的详细信息最多,但就时间而言,只说“其中一种设备可能会在今年夏天推出。”这种插值的意义在于 - 如果 - 并且它仍然是如果— this really is a device that Apple is preparing to release, fever-pitched rumors won’t make it appear any sooner than when Apple deems it ready.)

错误的增加市场份额

It’s my assumption that Apple’s long-term plan for the iPhone platform is patterned after Apple’s long-term plan for the iPodApple的iPod策略非常成功,并且有许多明显的相似之处最大的区别是iPhone的成功更快比iPod——苹果没有发布iTunes之前的Windows版本吗两年原来的iPod作为Mac专用外设发布后。

iPod历史上的一个关键点是2004年1月发布的iPod Mini就在那时,Apple将iPod从单一产品扩展到一系列产品,而Mini被证明是一个热门产品iPod Mini背后的公式很简单:Apple制造了一款更小,更便宜的设备,与2001年10月的原始iPod或多或少相同的技术规格。

Apple went on to repeatedly improve upon the iPod in two ways: on the high end by producing new devices with the same shape and price but with new features (additional storage, color screens, larger screens, video, etc.); on the low end by taking the existing features and making them smaller and cheaper.

这就是我看到苹果iPhone的iPod应用策略在某种程度上iPhone将扩大形式与两个因素有关:

  1. A high-end iPhone with the same basic size and price as previous iPhones, but with significant new featuresObvious potential new features would be things like more storage space, more RAM, a faster CPU, an improved (and eventually video-capable) camera, 802.11n Wi-Fi, and superior battery technology.

  2. A new, lower-priced, smaller, and more adorable iPhone, with more or less the same technical specs as the original iPhone. Given that those specs include the 320 × 480 display, I wouldn’t expect something, but remember that the original iPod Mini was “just” 35 percent smaller by volume than the then-current full-sized iPodShrink the iPhone’s forehead and chin and make it thinner — maybe a很多thinner — is what I’m thinkingExisting iPhone apps would run just fine on the new device, as it’d have similar, if not identical, CPU performance and RAM to previous full-sized iPhonesSuch an iPhone sounds much like the “iPhone Lite” that BusinessWeek reported its source saw.

唯一的问题是什么时候可能是今年可能是明年但是让我记录下来预测它将在2010年底之前发生。

The reason why Apple did this with the iPod, and why I’m convinced they’ll do it again with the iPhone, is that when it comes to managing the balance between per-unit profit and overall market share, Apple is determined to err on the side of market share(Not as much with the Mac, however — the difference being that PCs are now a firmly established market.) Most gadget companies, when they have a smash hit on their hands, try to milk it一家典型的公司发现自己销售数百万美元的400美元基于硬盘的数字音乐播放器,将尽力继续销售相同400美元基于硬盘的数字音乐播放器,只要它可以苹果,尽管压倒性的70%市场份额,积极增加特性和压低自己的价格,年复一年。

我有先前引用Steven Levy 2004年的以下段落《新闻周刊》采访时史蒂夫·乔布斯, but it’s worth repeating here主题是Mac长期停滞(当时)的市场份额。

If that’s so, then why is the Mac market share, even after Apple’s recent revival, sputtering at a measly 5 percent? Jobs has a theory about that, tooOnce a company devises a great product, he says, it has a monopoly in that realm, and concentrates less on innovation than protecting its turf“The Mac user interface was a 10-year monopoly,” says Jobs“Who ended up running the company? Sales guysAt the critical juncture in the late ’80s, when they should have gone for market share, they went for profitsThey made obscene profits for several yearsAnd their products became mediocre然后他们的垄断以Windows 95结束They behaved like a monopoly, and it came back to bite them, which always happens.”

在短期内,苹果可以燃料爆炸iPhone销量增长只是通过减少输入价格但在某些时候,看起来几年后,扩大iPhone的美国市场份额需要超越AT&T唯一的问题是什么时候。


  1. 值得注意的是:明斯特从未提及Verizon的名字他只是询问与AT&T保持排他性库克Verizon自己长大。↩︎

  2. CDMA / GSM分裂阻止了Verizon用户甚至解锁了iPhoneI’ve long wondered how much more prevalent iPhone unlocking would be if Verizon had a GSM network. ↩︎