微软的Windows 7竞赛

忽略他对稻草人“Mac粉丝”的前期针刺,和Joe Wilcox提出了一个很好的观点在这篇文章中,微软对Windows 7的竞争是什么:

Windows 7’s biggest competitor will be Windows XP, which runs on about 80 percent of PCs, according to combined analyst reports. Microsoft’s first challenge will be getting XP users to move up to Windows 7Mac market share was 7.6 percent in the United States in the second quarter, according to IDC(Gartner and IDC should release Q3 preliminary numbers in the next couple of days.)

(那些数字刚出来,Mac数量同比增长。)

Mac share is inconsequential to Microsoft compared to Windows XP. My prediction: Windows 7 will slow Mac share gains, which already declined over the last three quarters, according to both Gartner and IDC.

我们会看到这个预测,但我认为Wilcox是Windows 7的主要竞争对手微软确实首先担心原始市场份额,而XP则是长期以来的市场领导者然而,与Mac的这种比较是苹果与橙子,因为苹果不关心整体市场份额他们只关注市场中高端和硬件的销售利润分享Apple出售计算机,而不是OS许可证,以及它们的份额利润在美国电脑市场是在25%以上的某个地方(也许办法但即便如此,微软也不关心苹果公司的发展市场分享(这确实只是几个百分点),有没有人怀疑PC硬件制造商非常关注苹果的成长利润分享?

But so here’s a thought: What if the reason why most PCs are still running XP has nothing to do with whether Vista is “good” or “bad”, but rather is the result of indifference on the part of whoever owns these untold millions of XP machines, be they at home or in a corporate IT environment? I.e., that switching to Vista, regardless of Vista’s merits, seemed like too much work and too much new stuff to learn; that the nature of the PC as a universal commodity is such that most of them belong to people who value “old and familiar” more than “new and improved but therefore different”如果是这样的话,Windows 7可能不会比Vista做得更好也许Windows 7的竞争并不是XP,而是冷漠。

换句话说,Windows 7的质量将促使XP升级的想法是基于这样一个事实,即坚持使用XP的人根据质量做出计算选择But if that’s the case, why exactly are they still running Windows XP? Why are they still using Internet Explorer? I think it’s hard to overstate the fact that, with the explosion of the Internet as a universal communication medium, hundreds of millions of PCs have been purchased around the world by people who don’t care about computers or software at all.

也许就这样了也许Vista的问题实际上只是普遍的主流认知,它是一个哑弹发布,如果这个想法传播Windows 7是一个很好的版本,它将引发XP的大量升级对于微软而言,这确实是最好的情况,我认为这完全合情合理事实是,没有人真正知道为什么Vista在市场上的表现如此糟糕它无视一个简单的解释。

值得注意的是,苹果公司并没有在下周首次亮相Windows 7的情况下抑制对Mac销量的预期恰恰相反:商业周刊的Peter Burrows昨天发表了对Phil Schiller的采访席勒认为苹果会这样做效益来自Windows 7

The Cupertino (Calif.) company sees Windows 7 as its best chance in years to win over longtime PC usersMillions of PC owners are expected to head to stores over the next year to replace their aging machinesThe surge is expected to be unusually large because Microsoft’s last operating system, Vista, was so poorly reviewed that many people simply stuck with machines running the eight-year-old Windows XP system.

In the coming weeks, Apple is expected to hit those computer buyers with advertising aimed at luring them to its MacsIt will likely make the case that Macs are less susceptible to viruses and are best suited to its popular iPods and iPhonesAnd look for it to poke fun at Microsoft for making XP owners go through an arduous process to upgrade to Windows 7 — one that includes backing up all their files to an external drive, reformatting their PC, and then reinstalling all of their old programs, assuming they still have the CDs“Any user that reads all those steps is probably going to freak outIf you have to go through all that, why not just buy a Mac?” says Schiller.

你可能想要争辩,好吧,菲尔席勒当然会说,他是菲尔席勒。这是真的,即使席勒认为Windows 7会对Mac销售产生负面影响,但这并不像他在采访中承认的那样很明显,从显而易见的角度来看,如果Windows 7获得糟糕的评论,对Apple来说会更好但席勒的言论并不是他希望Mac能够拥有自己的,而是他希望Mac继续蓬勃发展如果他不相信,为什么要设定这样的期望呢?

这触及了Windows和Mac OS X之间奇怪,正交,间接竞争的核心是的,他们竞争是的,在每次审核中,将Windows 7与Snow Leopard进行比较是公平和不可避免的但微软正在向操作系统出售许可证,其中大部分用于低端PC硬件Apple正在销售电脑硬件,没有其中是低端市场。

所以Windows 7完全有可能对微软都有好处and苹果The Mac can continue to gain a few percentage points per year in the higher-profit premium range of the market, while at the same time Windows 7 could grab a majority share of the overall market, mainly at the low-cost high-unit-sale end of the market.

事实上,这正是我期望它发挥出来的方式。