哦,乔,你没有

乔威尔科特斯周五发表一篇题为“在第三季度,苹果的销售手机并不比诺基亚更有利可图“(帽子强调他的)它在从DF广泛引用(引用和链接这里Strategy Analytics)上周报告的结论苹果公司产生更多的利润比上一季度手机销售诺基亚的诺基亚。

威尔科特斯持怀疑态度——没有错,进行自己的调查数字:

Well, hell, that sounds reasonable enough, right? WrongApple and Nokia SEC filings tell a different storyBoth companies announced third calendar quarter results a few days apart in mid October. For devices and services,诺基亚报告的利润为7.85亿欧元, which is about US $1.1 billionApple reported total profits — that is for all products — of $1.67 billion in its earnings新闻稿,以后的10-K归档I searched the 10-K, and, as I expected, Apple doesn’t breakout iPhone profits.

但这不是为了讨论的目的I don’t doubt that Apple is more profitable per handset, since iPhone is a smartphone, than NokiaBut the numbers don’t add up to Apple’s overall handset profitability exceeding Nokia’s during third quarter, unless someone is making the bold assumption that all, or nearly all, Apple profits came from iPhoneThey surely do not. What? Apple made only $700,000 on iPod, Macintosh, retail and software — $1.6 billion — on iPhone不可能。

The disturbing lack of fact checking seems to be a trend when it comes to Apple these days.

这个烦扰的无论是乔·威尔科克斯发现了一个大规模的,被广泛报道的错误,或者,他已经愚弄了自己(Wilcox认为16.7亿美元--16亿美元是700,000美元,而不是70,000,000美元,提供了线索。)

What Wilcox is arguing is that Apple only reported $1.67 billion in total profit for the quarter, so how could they possibly have made $1.6 billion from the iPhone alone? But that’s not what Apple reported at all或许Wilcox真的不仅仅读第一段苹果的新闻发布会上宣布该公司的收入,他会明白的。苹果宣布声明

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2009 fourth quarter ended September 26, 2009The Company posted revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted shareThese results compare to revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarterGross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

In accordance with the subscription accounting treatment required by GAAP, the Company recognizes revenue and cost of goods sold for iPhone and Apple TV over their estimated economic livesAdjusting GAAP sales and product costs to eliminate the impact of subscription accounting, the corresponding non-GAAP measures for the quarter are $12.25 billion of “Adjusted Sales” and $2.85 billion of “Adjusted Net Income.”

跟随苹果的每个人都应该知道,苹果的iPhone销售额超过八个季度这种做法很不寻常,但并不复杂这是他们能给iPhone用户免费的软件更新,相反,因为iPod的销量占订阅,为什么iPod Touch用户必须支付相同的更新当苹果上一季度iPhone销售只占该季度的收入和利润的八分之一其余的seven-eigths将占未来七个季度。

基于订阅的会计并不意味着Apple不会立即从iPhone中获得现金他们这样做 - 至少从2008年6月开始,他们转向从运营商那里获得前期补贴的模式,而不是计费收入分成模式they used with AT&T for the first year这只是一个会计问题苹果称之为“非GAAP措施”的方式是“这是我们本季度实际赚了多少钱”28.5亿美元的“调整后净收入”实际上是苹果本季度报告的利润,如果他们没有使用基于订阅的会计iPhone和Apple TV。

这就是苹果手头的现金增长了21美元十亿在过去的三年里,从2006年9月30日的14.5亿美元增加到2009年9月26日的362亿美元(点击“资产负债表”和“年度数据”。)1

苹果公司确实没有特别突破iPhone销售收入或利润But unless you think Apple is selling a lot more Apple TVs than most of us do, it’s pretty safe to say that the iPhone accounts for nearly all of the difference between Apple’s GAAP and non-GAAP reported profit, which difference came to $1.18 billion for the quarter这表明Strategy Analytics的数据都差不多诺基亚确实值得注意占其作为苹果一样——诺基亚手机销量占他们“正常”,本季度,他们出售。

即使Strategy Analytics的16亿美元的数字有点高,他们也不得不错超过5亿美元他们的总体结论(苹果公司比诺基亚销售手机获得的利润更多)是错误的这是另一个背后的计算方法苹果发布每季度销售的iPhone总数上个季度为740万因此,战略分析公司估计利润为16亿美元,相当于740万部iPhone,而每部iPhone的利润为216美元,这再次听起来像是在球场上(无补贴的16和32 GB iPhone 3GS型号 - 最受欢迎的iPhone - 售价分别为599美元和699美元,而Apple报告的季度毛利率为36.6%。)

至于威尔科克斯的潜在暴露,我几乎尴尬引用他的结尾段:

As for Apple’s overall phone profits being higher than Nokia’s, don’t believe itJust because dozens of Websites report something as true doesn’t make it soBecause of the extent of misreporting, I can’t say where the fault liesThe Strategic Analytics report, which again I haven’t seen, might have gone no further than present numbers showing that Apple makes more profit per phone than Nokia这绝对有道理But to assert that iPhone generated $1.6 billion profit during a quarter when all Apple products generated $1.67 billion is simple stupidity.

简单的愚蠢。

如果你订阅市场份额的福音,它可能很难充实你的大脑,一个公司有2.5%的单位销售市场份额产生更多的利润比公司以35%的市场份额但数字不复杂iPhone确实是一件大事。


  1. 威尔科克斯如此彻底难倒了苹果的iPhone会计——相信苹果是比实际产生更少的现金——让我想知道许多分析师和投资者同样困惑可能很多因此值得注意的是,最近的一项会计准则的变化可能改变苹果报道这些数字在不久的将来,这样苹果可以报告收入来自iphone的方式随意观察人士预计,第二季度的销售这是什么Henry Blodget写规则的改变在九月:

    The new rule will allow Apple to recognize the iPhone hardware revenue and profit at the point of sale, while an estimated value for the software will be recognized over the life of the device.

    会计的变化不应该有所作为,但我猜它会Look for Apple’s stock to jump up if they make this change. ↩︎