情绪救援

周末有一个有趣的iOS-vs.-Android新闻和专家的线索,从一开始Seth Weintraub为财富报道的这份报告

I had a chance to speak with Jim Tran, VP/GM Handset Line of Business for Broadcom, who was able to elaborate on the details of the new processor and what it meant for the industry[...]

但是踢球者是价格Tran says that phones made from the BCM2157 chipset will retail for under $100 and may dip as low as $75Those devices should debut in just 3-6 months (and we might hear about them next month at CES)[…] To be clear, That sub $100 price is not the cost of materials, it is the suggested retail price after the manufacturers (and carriers) have taken their profits.

换句话说,明年将有100美元的Android手机。

不过,我不确定这有什么资格作为新闻美国折扣航空公司Cricket已售出价格合理的华为Android手机,价格为130美元我不知道是否有人关注这个行业,他们没有预料到Android手机制造商的折扣。

以下是Weintraub总结他的报告:

What’s most interesting is that unless Apple has a plan to keep up, their iPhone, once one of the only usable smartphone games in town, may wind up back where most Apple products are slotted — at the top of the market, affordable only to those willing and able to pay a premium for Steve Jobs’ aesthetic sensibilities.

换句话说,更便宜的Android手机给苹果带来了麻烦。

我对Weintraub的期望更高他说,iPhone“可能会结束”降级到市场的顶端但这不就是iPhone的确切位置开始, and has remained, from 2007 through today? The key is how much of the “top”比如,占据市场前5%的市场份额和同一市场的前30%之间存在巨大差异。

在2007年7月,通过“可用”这个词,Apple使用Weintraub的术语“可用的智能手机”占据了100%的市场份额。如果你算上“可用智能手机”的份额不断下降,而不是公司的手机,甚至只是智能手机的份额,对苹果公司来说,事情看起来只是灾难性的。

真实的故事,如果Weintraub在2011年推出100美元Android手机的报道,则消除了“手机”和“智能手机”之间的区别。Horace Dediu得到了它

What strikes me about the claim from Broadcom is that a $100 retail price for a smartphone implies an ASP of about $85 or so (assuming $15 or a very modest 18% channel mark-up).

That means that a smartphone could be built using this chip which would have nearly half the average price of all branded phones sold last quarter.

It would also be priced cheaper than the average price Nokia charged for all its phones (75% of which were non-smart phones.) […]

Note that I’m not suggesting that the market for high-end smartphones is threatened yet–there is still a lot of innovation that still needs to happen to shape that market into one of mobile computing (vs移动电话)。

Instead, what I am suggesting is that the bottom of the phone market is very vulnerable to becoming smart.

换句话说:2011年100美元的Android智能手机将比典型的更便宜非智能手机那是在2010年出售的这类手机对传统手机制造商来说将是一个更大的威胁 - 诺基亚,尤其可能是苹果。

可以这样想:自iPhone发布以来,Apple一直在与100-150美元的手机竞争大多数这些手机在签署或延长两年合同时都是“免费”给予客户的未来的差异在于,即使是低端手机也将成为我们今天称之为“智能手机”的术语,通过任何合理的术语定义。

Will this affect Apple? Sure2007年夏季的iPhone完全不同于市场上的任何其他产品2011年夏季的iPhone将作为“典型”手机共享相同的基本外形和基本触摸屏UI前提苹果当然预料到了这一点Apple的高管们不仅仅确信iPhone的基本设计是苹果手机的正确理念他们确信这是所有手机的正确基础设计。

这是史蒂夫乔布斯,关于他1979年对施乐公园的访问

他们向我展示了三件事But I was so blinded by the first one I didn’t even really see the other twoOne of the things they showed me was object orienting programming they showed me that but I didn’t even see thatThe other one they showed me was a networked computer system… they had over a hundred Alto computers all networked using email etc., etc., I didn’t even see thatI was so blinded by the first thing they showed me which was the graphical user interfaceI thought it was the best thing I’d ever seen in my lifeNow remember it was very flawed, what we saw was incomplete, they’d done a bunch of things wrongBut we didn’t know that at the time but still though they had the germ of the idea was there and they’d done it very well and within you know ten minutes it was obvious to me that all computers would work like this some day.

与原始iPhone相同当然,乔布斯和其他苹果公司都知道有一天所有的掌上电脑设备都会像iPhone一样工作如果您认为Apple一直没有为此做好准备,那么您就不会关注Apple的运营方式。

iPod首次亮相,售价为399美元,配备5 GB存储空间和小巧的黑白显示屏它并没有留在那里他们以较低的价格增加了新型号,并稳步增加了高端的主要新功能。

三年来,苹果一直在销售199美元的iPod Touch这个低价位 - 相比500美元和600美元的无补贴iPhone,或者补贴iPhone的两年服务合同2000美元 - 是iOS平台增长的一个重要因素这场战斗不仅仅是针对“手机”这是关于软件平台的任何仅关注“手机”的讨论都忽略了iPod Touch和iPad苹果公司不会参加竞争,以获得业内最低的价格,但他们肯定会发布价格低于(比今天)的iOS设备继续发展平台。

Something else missing from this discussion of $100 Android phones: the cost of service contractsiPhone 4以及所有竞争对手的顶级智能手机,在没有运营商补贴的情况下出售,相对昂贵:400-600美元但在美国几乎所有这些手机都以补贴价格出售,每月服务合同价格昂贵24个月每月75美元是1,800美元 - 许多人每月花费超过75美元用于他们的智能手机服务How different, cost-wise, is a free Android handset from a $99 iPhone, if both come with two-year contracts for the same monthly rate? Or, from a $100 unsubsidized Android phone sold without a contract, if the minimum monthly rate plan is $70 or $80? The real race to expand smartphone sales is to reduce the cost of the monthly plans.

你只是一个富人家里的穷女孩

这里有点来自路易斯格雷对市场状况的看法

The truth is that Android can go feature by feature against iPhone nowiPhone is not yards ahead of the competition, and while there may be some clear places where Apple is ahead, it comes down to an individual’s preference now, including their choice to have a keyboard (which Apple seems not interested in doing), their choice of carriers (still limited here, even if Verizon comes to the party), or many other factorsThis is not like the Microsoft of the 1990s, where Apple’s lead was obvious and Windows 95 was arguably the first usable OS on that platform to be considered Mac-like.

The way you can tell when tech connoisseurs have crossed the line from data to emotion is when they use blanket phrases like “In my usage of the Android-based Samsung Nexus S, I’ve found it’s still behind Apple’s iPhone in almost every way,” which Scoble drops in his postIf you strongly believe a high pixel density Retina Display is demanded, greatIf you think FaceTime is something you use all the time and it trumps Qik, greatBut blanket statements don’t work for the true nature of the mobile landscape todayAndroid确实很好。

这个是引用格雷的罗伯特·斯科布尔。)

暂时忽略“Android现在可以针对iPhone推出功能”我对它提出异议,但现在才承认也忽略了最好的Android手机,如Nexus S,售价超过500美元的无补贴格雷失踪的是情绪很重要移动计算并非完全合理的市场当人们选择买什么时,情感是一个很重要的因素 - 我想甚至可能是最大的一个Apple了解这一点所有iOS设备 - 全部苹果就此而言,设备的设计考虑了情感体验Why does almost everything in iOS animate? Why did Apple create CoreAnimation, and base UIKit app development so heavily upon it? Because animation, even in small unobtrusive doses, has an emotional affect它会产生一种感觉。

打消苹果产品的情感吸引力是忽略苹果产品的全部意义。

想想汽车的销售和销售方式,以便进行比较或者耐克推销和设计鞋类的方式或者珠宝和女士手袋的市场情感很重要,Scoble完全正确:iPhone 4在情感吸引力方面胜过Nexus S.

Emotion也适用于其他公司数以千万计的黑莓用户与他们的手机有情感联系有些人情绪激动厌恶来自Apple的任何事物。

Does everyone shop for phones with emotion in mind? No, of course not汽车,珠宝,鞋类,服装等都是如此有些人只根据价格和规格购买。

人们不断提升1995年,相对于Windows 95和苹果公司前乔布斯的下滑。MG西格勒写道

What does concern me about Android’s success is if it does to Apple what Windows did to them in the 1990sThat is, drives them into near extinction.There are plenty of reasons to believe why this won’t be the case— but history does have a tendency to repeat itselfWhat if everyone does decide that they want a free smartphone subsidized by search? How does the iPhone survive in that environment?

I don’t think that will happen, I think Apple has enough ecosystem leverage with things like the iPad, iTunes, and their apps, that it would be very hard for a full collapse to occurBut it is something that has to be thought about.

不,它没有Why not ask what happens to Honda if everyone decides to buy $8000 Chinese automobiles? Or what happens to Nike if everyone decides to buy $30 discount running shoes? Or if everyone buys $15 wristwatches? There’s no question that Apple would be in a better position in some alternative universe where Android doesn’t existIf not for Android, what would be iOS’s chief rival? Windows Phone 7, which only shipped a few weeks ago? But no one at Apple, either in public or private, seems to be in denial about AndroidThere’s an implied assumption in some of this handwringing that the iPhone (and iOS as a whole) only have a chance so long as they don’t have any competition — that Apple is a delicate corporate flower that stands still and can’t compete on price.

如果Android手机制造商能够以100美元的价格制作一部好的手机,那苹果公司就无法做到更好one for the same price? And if these $100 Android phones aren’t all that good, how is it a concern to Apple? The iPhone 4 hardware is decidedly superior to the Nexus S — better camera, better display, better build quality — and only slightly more expensive.

Scoble,在上述作品的后续行动中,做对了80年代和90年代的整个PC市场与今天的移动市场完全不同:

1995年,微软在DOS上占据了巨大的市场份额That meant it had a huge army of developers who didn’t want to switch over to Apple’s system, which they saw as very closed and inflexible[...]

但我看看谁在赚钱Back in 1995 developers were mostly making money from DOSRemember, this caused WordPerfect and Borland to make bad betsThey bet on DOS for too long, while Bill Gates went and built some of the first and best Macintosh apps然而,这一教训并没有从1995年到2011年Today where are most of the developers making their money? iOS (according to Sephora, Starbucks, OpenTable, eBay, and many other developers)So, Android has to convince developers to switch, or do both platforms at same time那是完全不同的。

微软拥有最大的软件平台之前Windows 95发货那时候,人们在午夜排队购买Windows 95。这是本月早些时候Nexus S的产品线人们排队的Android手机永远不会像他们为Windows 95那样排队 - 或者像今天一样,每年一次或两次,对于Apple的主要新产品。

到目前为止,Apple目前拥有最大的移动软件平台Mac的情况从未如此但最大的不同是,今天的苹果公司对主流大众市场充满了情感信任。

想象一下这是2011年6月史蒂夫乔布斯即将结束他的WWDC主题演讲,并宣布推出iPhone 5除了他甚至没有展示它,或说什么是新的他只是说它是伟大的,迄今为止最好的iPhone,并且它将在两周内以199美元的价格与两年合约续售。

How big would the lines be to buy it? Sight unseen, based solely on Jobs’s word that it was “great”?

我说的同样大,如果不是大的话去年购买iPhone 4的线路

Android不像Windows创建Windows是为了为微软带来大量的许可收入,并作为Office和Exchange等额外的营利性软件的平台谷歌免费提供Android,通过提供移动广告间接获利(但也许,非常可取)从来没有像Android这样的东西但是之前从来没有像iOS这样的东西。

Here’s the question: Can iOS remain the leading mobile platform without being the leading platform measured by device unit sales? Put another way: can iOS and Android both thrive in 2011, because they are, by design, playing very different games?