表面:在岩石和硬件之间

观看Microsoft Surface事件视频我感到不安不是恐慌,而是不舒服有人会争辩说,我只是被苹果公司的舞台上的光彩所玷污,但周一的微软事件让我感到震惊和严重的排练不足Ballmer offered nothing but blustering bromides, and nothing even vaguely resembling a coherent answer to the big question: Why? Steven Sinofsky was nervous and hurried这对他的第一台Surface RT装置没有帮助在他做任何其他事情之前就已经崩溃了有一刻他说Surface非常适合坐下,在椅子上放松,看电影他坐在那把椅子上大约三秒钟,然后冲进下一段。

我发现节目主持人的排练次数少得多,演示文稿的内容远没有Apple事件那么紧密(除了设计师Panos Panay的明显例外,他在舞台上非常稳固。)没有故事到处都是:这是一款ARM平板电脑这是巧妙的键盘盖现在这是另一款看起来相同但更厚一点的平板电脑,但事实上它正在运行一个不同且不兼容的操作系统哦,这是另一个键盘盖,这个带有移动键。设计是关于做决定的,微软无法决定ARM or Intel? Who should be on stage? Soft or hard keys on the keyboard cover? They went with “all of the above”.

他们做出的唯一一个艰难决定就是重大决策:反对他们的OEM硬件合作伙伴。

I presume Microsoft timed this event to jump ahead of anything Google might be announcing at their I/O conference next week — and the consensus seems to be that Google is going to announce much the same idea: their own Google-branded, Google-designed tablet that will put them in direct competition not just with Apple but with their own OS licensees.

But no pricing, no battery life specs, no demonstrations of the seemingly extraordinarily clever cover-keyboards in action, or really much in the way of software demonstrations, period? That’s rough, even by the standards of pre-announcements对这些事情的怀疑并不需要膝盖反射的苹果粉丝它只需要一组开放的眼球我收到的消息是,微软已经得出结论,无论是否准备好,它现在需要移动仅仅销售软件就没有足够的利润了。


记得原iPad的推出at the end of January 2010? The only product Steve Jobs talked about on stage was the iPad, but the presentation was about much more通过谈论苹果已超过500亿美元的年度收入门槛,乔布斯开业了(他们已经超过了1000亿美元的门槛。)他们花了大部分时间讨论iPad的集成片上系统,A4我总结道我接受了这个活动从而:

They’re Microsoft and Intel rolled into one when it comes to mobile computingIn the pre-taped video Apple showed, Bob Mansfield said of the iPad, “No one else could do it.” Only Apple.

And so my takeaway from this — with the bragging about making their own CPUs and their annual revenue and their size compared to companies like Sony, Samsung, and Nokia — is that this is Apple’s way of asserting that they’re taking over the penthouse suite as the strongest and best company in the whole ones-and-zeroes racket.

现在很清楚,这是正确的如果有的话,它被低估了 - 苹果现在是世界上最强大,最成功的公司,遍及任何和所有行业。

If not for the iPad — imagine, for a moment, that the company still to this day had not shipped a tablet — Apple would still be thriving, based on huge (and hugely profitable) iPhone sales and the Mac’s steady continuing growth (six years of consecutive quarterly growth ahead of the overall PC industry)但正是iPad推动苹果超越顶级iPhone建议苹果将主导口袋计算iPad暗示苹果将主宰计算时代。

微软本周表明自己愿意做一些曾经不可想象的事情:设计和销售自己的PC硬件这是微软和整个PC行业发展方向的重大变化然而,iPad已经出现了很长时间并且非常成功,以至于没有人对微软的声明感到震惊但不要搞错:无论好坏,Surface都是PC行业历史上的分水岭。

哈里麦克拉肯

After 37 years, Microsoft agrees with Alan Kay: “People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware.”

精明的Lessien,推特微软事件发生后不久

Microsoft’s move today suggests it feared the irretrievable loss of the tablet market to iPad, if it continued to rely on third-party OEMs.

我会走得更远,并争辩说他们不仅担心失去平板电脑市场,还担心整个PC市场不是纯粹的数字,而是纯粹的利润Apple doesn’t want to sell all of the world’s computers and phones; rather, Apple wants to reap all the profits in the computer and phone industriesWindows消失并不存在任何威胁,但微软从Windows获利的风险大大减弱。

Horace Dediu,今天

If we simply divide revenues by PCs sold we get about $55 Windows revenues per PC and $68 of Office revenues per PC soldThe total income for Microsoft per PC sold is therefore about $123If we divide operating income by PCs as well we get $35 per Windows license and $43 per Office licenseThat’s a total of $78 of operating profit per PC.

Now let’s think about a post-PC future exemplified by the iPad. Apple sells the iPad with a nearly 33% margin but at a higher average price than Microsoft’s software bundleApple gives away the software (and apps are very cheap) but it still gains $195 in operating profit per iPad sold.

好吧,你说,但微软弥补了它的数量Well, that’s a problemThe tablet volumes are expanding very quickly and are on track to overtake traditional PCs while traditional PCs are likely to be disrupted and decline.

所以微软面临两难选择Their business model of expensive software on cheap hardware is not sustainableThe future is nearly free software integrated into moderately priced hardware.

我们有它:四个简短的段落解释了为什么微软已将其枪支转向制造PC的OEM这一举动是由iPad推动的,但竞争对手直接使微软不利于苹果,而是反对戴尔,惠普,东芝,等目的显然是放慢iPad的速度,但微软战略的根本转变是关于对苹果公司之后的利润的争夺。数学不再适用于Windows你-抛售的硬件,我们销售最软件模型它适用于单位份额(参见Android),但它并不是为了获利在没有利润的情况下,没有任何东西可持续地在企业中运作 - 氧气公司呼吸的是利

即使苹果公司的增长很快放缓,苹果公司也已经获得了该行业利润的大部分份额如果苹果公司的增长在接下来的一两年里,请注意除了三星之外,苹果在手机行业的所有竞争对手现在都渴望获利他们正在死去,所有这些人 - HTC正在收支平衡,剩下的就是红色。

iPad的增长速度超过了iPhoneMac已经拥有999美元以上的市场(利润率),iPad拥有平板电脑市场(增长的地方)PC市场正在迅速走向电话市场。

Microsoft Surface是从根本上讲,微软需要控制整个集成产品才能在设计上与iPad竞争这是微软需要出售整个产品以维持其当前的盈利能力。

Surface是一个大胆的举动,而且是经典的微软如果原始设备制造商不喜欢它 -他们没有— what are they going to do? Turn to Linux (which no one wants) or Android (which no one wants on anything other than phones)? It’s the OEMs whom Microsoft thinks Surface can put into checkmate, not Apple.

如果我是对的,那么现在微软将收购诺基亚是不可避免的。