说真的,苹果是注定要失败的

Dan Crow,20世纪90年代的另一位前Apple员工,还说苹果公司已经证明了自己没有史蒂夫·乔布斯注定要失败,因为“卫报”标题为“我们已经过了苹果峰":

Why do I think Apple has passed its peak? There are a number of signs最近的最明显的一个是地图的溃败Replacing Google Maps with an obviously inferior experience shows how much Apple has changedApple’s success had been all about offering users the best possible experience; suddenly it is willing to give users a clearly worse experience to further its corporate interests - in this case its long-running dispute with GoogleWe might expect this sort of behaviour from Microsoft, but we don’t expect it from Apple.

相反,不管是好是坏,iOS 6地图正是我们期望从苹果:以控制基本技术,自信,或许有点过于自己的能力建立一个最佳的产品所有的数十名“这不会发生如果乔布斯还活着”论点我看过,我看过很多,地图是最糟糕的Steve Jobs would have traded in Google Maps for a folded-up map from a gas station at this point, given the competitive situation between Apple and Google and the various privacy-invasive strings Google wanted to attach to desperately needed features like turn-by-turn navigation and vector map tiles.

Steve left Apple towards the end of 2011, and since then we’ve seen a number of missteps, all leading up to the recent executive reshuffle that left Forstall and Browett out in the cold.

在史蒂夫乔布斯的带领下,苹果远非完美但事后看来,该公司的批评者和怀疑论者现在认为适合认为他的统治完美无缺或几乎如此。这是雅虎财经上的一个人告诉Henry Blodget“史蒂夫·乔布斯不是错误的任何东西。”

What you want is to be (1) right more often than wrong; (2) willing to recognize when you are wrong; and (3) able and willing to correct whatever is wrongIf you expect perfection, to be right all the time, you’re going to fail on all three of those — you will be wrong sometimes, that’s just human nature; you’ll be less willing or unwilling to recognize when you’re wrong because you’ve talked yourself into expecting perfection; and you won’t fix what’s wrong because you’ll have convinced yourself you weren’t wrong in the first place一直接近正确的唯一方法就是愿意改变你的想法,承认错误- 永远不会发生你一直都是正确的。

显然这将是更好的为苹果如果蒂姆•库克从未雇佣约翰Browett放在第一位也可能是更好的,如果库克,通过自己的人格的力量,能够让他的其他高级副总裁Scott Forstall,一起工作像史蒂夫·乔布斯已经能做库克却雇佣Browett,Forstall不再容忍他执行同行所以厨师做了你想看到:他承认错误和问题并采取果断行动。

拙劣的执行招聘史蒂夫乔布斯永远不会发生

Most recent tech startups subscribe to the organisational philosophies embodied at Google: extremely open internal communications, flat management hierarchies, as much bottom-up decision making as possible and lots of collaboration amongst team members苹果则相反It’s highly secretive, to the point of paranoia它有很多层次的管理Decisions are made at the top and rigidly enforced through micro-management and directionApple was built in Steve Jobs’s image, and Steve was all about control - specifically, his direct control of everything at Apple.

At Google, products are built by largely self-directed teams, so there is little consistency between them.

你不是在谷歌组织结构上卖我,在这里,丹。

Maps is the most obvious recent sign of changes at Apple, but there are other, more subtle, signs of a creative slowdownThe iPad 4 launched just six months after the iPad 3 with Retina DisplayIt doesn’t improve substantially over the previous version, yet has managed to annoy users who just bought an iPad 3. This insipid update is not the sort of magical product launch on which Apple has built its reputation.

所以乌鸦说史蒂夫乔布斯的苹果公司从来没有做过像iPad一样的性能 - 包括CPU和图形 - 就在假日季度之前但事实确实如此史蒂夫·乔布斯本人以下在2007年写道,两个月后iPhone推出:

First, I am sure that we are making the correct decision to lower the price of the 8GB iPhone from $599 to $399, and that now is the right time to do itiPhone is a breakthrough product, and we have the chance to ‘go for it’ this holiday seasoniPhone is so far ahead of the competition, and now it will be affordable by even more customersIt benefits both Apple and every iPhone user to get as many new customers as possible in the iPhone ‘tent’We strongly believe the $399 price will help us do just that this holiday season.

Second, being in technology for 30+ years I can attest to the fact that the technology road is bumpyThere is always change and improvement, and there is always someone who bought a product before a particular cutoff date and misses the new price or the new operating system or the new whateverThis is life in the technology laneIf you always wait for the next price cut or to buy the new improved model, you’ll never buy any technology product because there is always something better and less expensive on the horizonThe good news is that if you buy products from companies that support them well, like Apple tries to do, you will receive years of useful and satisfying service from them even as newer models are introduced.

我确信有一些方法可以证明上述论点不适用完美的苹果的iPad决定释放4 iPad 3七个月之后,但我想不出来回到乌鸦:

Compare that to the launch of the latest revisions of the iPad and iPhoneThey are accompanied by amazing levels of hype: “I don’t think the level of invention has been matched by anything we’ve ever done”, “This is the biggest thing to happen to iPhone since the iPhone”.

Is it just me, or are neither of those slogans all that hype-y? The “biggest thing” is a pun regarding the display size这与之前所有iPhone的营销口号完全一致。

Don’t get me wrong, the iPhone 5 is an excellent product; it’s probably the best smartphone on the market right now.

Just because it’s the best smartphone ever made (agrees Crow himself), doesn’t mean Apple should sing its praises? Maybe I need to brush up on my marketing.

但这只是一个增量比iPhone 4 s。

这只是iPhone 4的一个渐进式改进,这只是3GS的渐进式改进,这只是3G的增量改进,而3G只是原版iPhone和3G。

The iPhone 5 is better, but it’s really not that much better, and iOS 6 has had some decidedly mixed reviewsBut you wouldn’t know that listening to the hype from Bob Mansfield, Tim Cook, Phil Schiller et alThe problem with over-hyping is that people notice, and over time it erodes their faithThere are only so many times you can be told that a relatively small increment is “the greatest thing ever in the history of everything ever” before you get jaded乔布斯知道如何平衡炒作和产品Apple today seems much less adept at this.

好吧,回到史蒂夫·乔布斯身边的时候,你可以指望鲍勃·曼斯菲尔德和菲尔·席勒这样的人告诉我们新款iPhone的不太好用之处曼斯菲尔德在2008年:“iPhone 3G上的塑料外壳不如去年的铝合金外壳。”席勒在2011年:“真的,iPhone 4S只是快一点,我们将天线移动了一点点没有大呐喊。“(我找不到这些报价的来源。)

这令人费解Apple has a winning formula — perhaps the most successful business formula ever — yet it seems intent on changing itThe company has shifted away from Jobs’s laser-like focus on building the best and most complete user experience, and started putting its interests way ahead of those of its usersIt hasn’t introduced a truly new product since the launch of the iPad nearly three years ago; instead it’s making incremental and overhyped improvements to its current lines.

同比增量改进 苹果的制胜法宝

The loss of Steve was devastating — the entire company was built around him and the mistakes we have seen since he left are entirely consistent with a very hierarchical organisation trying to find its way without its leaderI think in hindsight, we will see that Apple’s peak of creativity, innovation and leadership was early 2012.

“创新”这个词,虽然我一直看到关于乔布斯的缺席将会体现在苹果没人会争辩设计在苹果死了,他们会开始大量生产的产品,不是美学公司没有人,即使是最热心的批评,会相信它(更常见的是Apple只要cares about aesthetic appeal; the iPhone 4 antenna and iOS 6 Maps controversies lend at least some credence to that — “better-looking but works worse”.) But革新, that’s something that many feel might be attributed solely to Jobs, and it plays directly into our utterly unreasonable collective desire to see Apple pull an original iPhone level of novelty and innovation out of its hat every single time Tim Cook or Phil Schiller takes the stage.

但是,苹果产品在推出时从未受到普遍欢迎乌鸦说,自从近三年前推出iPad以来,苹果公司“还没有推出真正的新产品”,但是当最初的iPad在2010年推出时,它就遭到了一群怀疑者的认可,他们认为这只不过是“a big iPhone”即使是最初的iPhone也被嘲笑 -字面上嘲笑和嘲笑- 竞争对手。

长期来看,判决结果出来了乔布斯已经离开了一年如果没有他,苹果公司还没有做出新的事。保留人才仍然是他们最大的风险,Forstall的离职强调了这一点但到目前为止,在创新 - 没有乔布斯的情况下,我会说从2010年4月的原始慢速厚板iPad到视网膜超高速iPad 4以及纤薄的iPad Mini今天是一个相当活跃的剪辑两年半之后,Apple提供了两款截然不同的iPad,它们都完全打破了原有的一款iPad,而原来的iPad现在几乎被普遍称为个人计算历史上的里程碑式创新。

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