将事实拟合到叙事中

在那些轻率报道的出版物中揭穿了Strategy Analytics的说法三星已经通过苹果电话手机的利润(并且有许多),我认为最有说服力的是David Murphy为PC Mag制作的标题:“分析师:三星终于超越苹果手机营运利润”。

最后

值得赞扬的是,墨菲更新了他的原创作品并发表了一篇文章彻底的跟进,引起人们对Daniel Dilger的关注,这比大多数人所说的要多得多,包括英国卫报的Juliette Garside福布斯的Tim WorstallCNet的Don ReisingerRyan Knutson of the Wall Street Journal凯文C.GigaOm的TofelZach Epstein of Boy Genius ReportCNBC的Matt Clinch1this un-bylined report by BBC News这些部分都没有包含更新,显示Strategy Analytics的声明存在争议,更不用说具体果断如何。

So again, not to single out Murphy, but to me, his “finally” explains why so many publications jumped on this story — the belief that it was inevitable, that Apple’s market domination has been an aberration, that the company is in the midst of an inevitable decline这是一个预先设想的叙事,推动事实,而不是推动叙事的事实。

另一个因素是奇怪的痛苦导致许多人相信任何归因于“分析师”的事情,无论分析师的记录如何(图表A:Rob Enderle; Exhibit B:旅行“索赔”Chowdhry)或其结论的方法和来源Some analysts are truly insightful; others are flat-out morons.

这样做的正确方法是从事实中汲取叙述错误的方式 - 但简单的方法 - 是强迫事实适应先入为主的叙述我无休止地担心自己陷入这个陷阱对于开发者而言,Android是一个零碎的混乱Android设备很容易滚动I seldom jump on articles that reinforce those beliefs immediately; I’d rather be late to link and right than early to link and wrong.昨天的链接对于英国广播公司iPlayer Android领导承认他们的Android团队比他们的iOS团队大三倍,这对我来说是一个强烈的迹象,表明我的预感仍然正确。

如果有的话,墨菲愿意以开放的心态跟进,值得赞扬“一直都是正确的” is a worthy goal but impossible; “尽量保持正确,但如果错误,请尽快行事“是正确的心态。


  1. Clinch published a follow-up, but it’s so utterly dismissive of Apple Insider — calling Apple Insider an “Apple fan website”, and more or less ignoring the actual evidence that Strategy Analytics’s conclusion was facile — that the point of his follow-up seemed more to be “These wacky Apple fans will believe anything” than “Whoa, those numbers from Strategy Analytics stink to high hell”. ↩︎