从拟合事实部到叙事部

Yukari凯恩的作品中最突出的句子为《纽约客》本月早些时候的汇率的博客——“为什么Apple如此怀旧?”——是最后,作者信贷:

Yukari Iwatani Kaneis a former Apple beat reporter for the Wall Street Journal她的书, ”Haunted Empire: Apple After Steve Jobs”,是由于在3月。

这本书的标题似乎对该书的前提非常具有启发性她为“纽约客”写的一篇文章 - 我要强调的是,这篇文章没有出现在杂志上,1但只有在他们的网站上,沿着相同的行你想从人显然认为乔布斯离开苹果“闹鬼的帝国”它整个月都在啃着我,就像一块爆米花卡在我的牙齿之间是时候用牙线了。

关于苹果最近的庆祝纪念活动最初的Macintosh成立30周年凯恩写道:

But, as beautifully as the video depicted how the company’s products have changed the world, it was also another reminder of how much Apple has changed since those days — not least because the old Apple, under Jobs, looked forward, not backward“I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long,” he had famously said“只是找出下一个。”

我同意跟她说这些促销活动,整个30年的Mac如果乔布斯还在身边,可能不会发生不是我假装知道乔布斯的想法 - 我只是看历史对我来说,25岁是一个更大的比30周年,四分之一世纪如果曾经有过苹果公司庆祝Macintosh周年纪念日的时间,那将是2009年的第25届他们没有2009年苹果公司和2014年苹果公司的最大区别在于史蒂夫乔布斯已经走了。

但我认为这是一个案例,也许是迄今为止最好的例子,在这种情况下,苹果公司做的事情与乔布斯还在这里的做法截然不同,而且公司的情况更好。库克在乔布斯的追悼会在苹果的校园早在2011年,说过

“除了他的家人,苹果将是他最好的创作He thought about Apple until his last day, and among his last advice he had for me and for all of you was to never ask what he would do“只要做对了,”他说He said he saw Disney paralyzed after Walt Disney’s passing as everyone spent all of their time thinking and talking about what Walt would want, and he did not want this to occur at Apple.

我爱整个30年的Mac的庆祝活动,我认为这是非常正确的但是,只有部分活动是关于回顾该“1.24.14”90秒短片已收到更多的关注比任何其他方面的活动,是关于世界各地的人们在做什么与苹果产品今天

合理的人肯定会对任何广告的优点持不同意见广告的大多数方面,特别是像这样的纯粹的品牌推广活动,都是主观的如果凯恩想要争辩说这场比赛过去比庆祝现在更加沉寂,我只能说我不同意,不是说她错了。

但奇怪的是,她的作品突然转向:

When Jobs was ousted in 1985, the impact of his absence on Apple’s business was not immediately obviousAfter a slow start, Macintosh sales began risingTwo years after Jobs left, Apple’s annual sales had almost doubled compared to three years earlier, and its gross profit margin was an astonishing fifty-one per cent. Outside appearances suggested that Apple hadn’t missed a beat.

在Apple内部,员工有不同的看法Something had changed. “I was let down when Steve left,” Steve Scheier, a marketing manager at Apple from 1982 to 1991, recalled“The middle managers, the directors, and the vice presidents kept the spirit alive for a long time without his infusion, but eventually you start hiring people you shouldn’t hireYou start making mistakes you shouldn’t have made.” Scheier told me that he eventually grew tired and leftThe company had “become more of a business and less of a crusade.”

Apple began celebrating its past glories with commemorative T-shirts, a garden of Macintosh sculptures, and a display of an old Apple I in the cafeteriaEngineers obsessed about getting credited in every program that was releasedBy the time Jobs returned, twelve years later, to rescue Apple from near bankruptcy, the company was unrecognizable.

The insinuation is clear: old Apple celebrated past accomplishments while losing its way in the (then) present; today’s Apple celebrating past accomplishments is therefore a sign that the pattern is repeating.

我不买苹果于1985年由一个执行团队领导通缉乔布斯走出公司他们解雇了他今天的Apple由一支钦佩并向他学习的高管团队领导I believe that Apple’s leaders are asking “What is right?”, not “What would Steve have done?” as they make decisions但是他们对这个问题的答案“什么是对的?”,是根据他们与他合作的经验得出的有一种Apple的做事方式,到目前为止,自2011年以来没有太大变化。

凯恩继续(强调我的,而不是她的):

So what about now? Apple’s supporters point to the company’s billions of dollars in quarterly profit and its tens of billions in revenue as proof that it continues to thrive.But Apple’s employees again know differently, despite the executive team’s best efforts to preserve Jobs’s legacyPeople who shouldn’t be hired are being hired (like Apple’s former retail chief, John Browett, who tried to incorporate big-box-retailer sensibilities into Apple’s refined store experience).

凯恩从这里开始就是一个坚实的观点苹果公司仍在增长的利润和收入对苹果公司目前领导层的长期前景没有任何影响RIM和诺基亚在2007年飞得很高(标题从2007年10月在《纽约时报》表示:“诺基亚的利润上升,市场份额接近40%”.) Sales of established product lines are lagging indicators, not leading indicators.

但后来,“但Apple的员工知道的不同”这是一个引人注目的,该死的主张我认为没有其他方式可以阅读它而不是意味着Apple的普通员工的心情是公司不会继续茁壮成长如果她有采访 - 匿名,可以肯定的是,如果他们与当前或最近的员工在一起 - 为了支持这一点,她还没有在这里分享(这个纽约人的作品是不是摘录从她的书中。)没有一个引用来支持这一论点也许我们不得不等她的书,但这句话并没有在本文中得到支持,并且,对于它的价值,并不与我从公司内部知道的人那里听到的内容相符。我对公司内部脉搏的感觉更像是笼中老虎的挫折,这是一种集体我们喜欢史蒂夫并想念他,但如果你认为这是一个单人表演,如果整个事情由一个关键词组合在一起,他妈的你。我感到自满的反面,a你会看到,等等肩负着一种责任感,乔布斯最伟大的创造和他的真正遗产不是产品,而是公司本身。2如果苹果不再是苹果公司,如果它逐渐消失到平庸和最终的无关紧要,那么它不应被视为乔布斯不可或缺的证据,而不是乔布斯未能创造一个可能比他更长久的组织,文化和传统。

Browett是一个有趣的例子据说,他是一个糟糕的雇佣,责任落在做饭但库克在工作仅仅10个月后解雇了他,经过长时间的搜索,取而代之的是备受好评的Burberry首席执行官Angela AhrendtsWhat’s the expectation for Tim Cook? To never make a mistake? Or, instead, to make as few mistakes as possible, and to recognize the ones he does make, and address them? If the bar is perfection — never making a bad executive hire — then Steve Jobs was a failure as wellHere’s a report — by no other than Yukari Kane — from 2010 for the WSJ: “iPhone执行官出局在Apple“:

Apple公司executive in charge of the iPhone has left the company following a string of stumbles with the device, and what people familiar with the situation said was a falling out with Chief Executive Steve Jobs.

Mark Papermaster, Apple’s senior vice president for mobile devices, has left the Cupertino, Calif., company, an Apple spokesman said Saturday, declining to provide further detailsMr. Papermaster, 49 years old, had joined Apple just 15 months ago from International Business Machines Corp.

也可以看看:Mac硬件工程主管Tim Bucher十年前离职

回到凯恩从《纽约客》的文章:

People who shouldn’t leave are leaving, or, in the case of the mobile-software executive Scott Forstall, being fired.

Mistakes, in turn, are being made: Apple Maps was a fiasco, and ads, like the company’s short-lived Genius ads and last summer’s self-absorbed manifesto ad, have been mediocre.

在一句话中,凯恩说解雇斯科特福斯塔尔是一个错误下一个句子,她称苹果地图的推出“惨败”事情就是这样:苹果地图属于Forstall的职权范围 - Forstall就是DRI,用Apple管理的说法。亚当拉辛斯基报道对福布斯而言,Forstall被驱逐的原因之一是他拒绝签署该公司的信件,为Apple Apple的质量道歉凯恩可以争辩说Forstall不应该被解雇她可以说,Apple Maps的发布是一次攻击但她无法双管齐下。

在蒂姆库克的带领下,犯下的错误对苹果来说并不陌生史蒂夫乔布斯远非完美iPhone 4“Antennagate”在2010年200美元价格下降为原来的iPhone,几个月后启动2005年的iPod Nano,其屏幕太容易划伤G4立方体套管中的裂缝。拉丝金属Flower Power和Dalmatian iMacs

至于Apple的广告 - 再次,判断广告显然是主观的 - 我认为它一直很出色“被误读“度假地点是苹果公司做过最好的一个浏览他们的YouTube频道,我明白了没有 工作去年短暂的“天才”运动并不是很好,但事实并非如此糟糕,并没有长时间运行。

(其中一些景点已从Apple的YouTube频道中删除:误解,iPad Air / Mini钢琴二重奏广告,用于介绍iPad Air的铅笔广告所有好广告,但我似乎无法再与他们联系。)

Apple’s latest version of its mobile operating system, iOS 7, looks pretty but is full of bugs and flawsAs for innovation, the last time Apple created something that was truly great was the original iPad, when Jobs was still alive.

啊,一世字。

凯恩并没有说原来的iPad是Apple最后一次真正创造的东西(我同意),但“真的很棒”考虑一下Apple自那时起发布的产品iPad Air比以前的iPad更小更薄,它的尺寸比iPad Mini更接近iPad 3/4,让“真正伟大”的原装iPad看起来像砖块带有Retina显示屏的iPad Mini具有与iPad Air相同的A7片上系统和性能其他公司已经具有顶级规格的平板电脑10-hour battery life with a screen size smaller than 8 inches? (Spoiler: no one.) The 2012 13-inch MacBook Air只有7小时的电池寿命; today’s 13-inch MacBook Air得到12个小时iPhone 5 s相机很好,苹果使用它,只,拍摄的镜头“1.24.14”视频,凯恩自己认为,起初她的片,苹果应该作为一个超级碗的商业运行。手机相机可以使用超级碗商业拍摄视频。The original iPhone didn’t even shoot video, period; today Apple can shoot a professional-caliber commercial using the iPhone 5S显然这并不算得上“创新”,因为唯一算得上创新是全新的产品类别。

但即使当苹果进入新的产品类别,他们不发明自己的类别iPad不是第一款平板电脑iPhone不是第一款智能手机或触摸屏手持设备iPod不是第一个数字音乐播放器The Macintosh, the original one, whose 30-year anniversary ostensibly prompted Kane’s piece (surely it wasn’t prompted by the imminent arrival of her book next month), was not the first computer with a windows-icons-menus-pointer “WIMP“图形用户界面。

苹果的新产品类别的初始条目往往是——如果不是总是被一些评论家谴责而不是创新Look no further than the product Kane now holds up as Apple’s last innovation, 2010’s original iPad, which was widely downplayed as “只是一个iPhone大“当它首次亮相(Slashdot创始人Rob Malda,在2001年的原版iPod上:“没有无线比游牧民更少的空间瘸。“我们可以整晚玩这个游戏。)

Although the company’s C.E.O., Tim Cook, insists otherwise, Apple seems more eager to talk about the past than about the future. Even when it refers to the future, it is more intent on showing consumers how it hasn’t changed rather than how it is evolving. The thirtieth anniversary of the Macintosh — and the “1984” ad — is not just commemorativeIt is a reminder of what Apple has stopped being.

鉴于蒂姆库克重申了这一点,这让我感到非常奇怪上个月的季度财务分析师电话并在随后的采访华尔街日报,苹果准备今年进入“新产品类别” - 复数如果凯恩的书的前提与她的纽约作品的基调相符,它的保质期可能会非常短暂。


我看到三种判断Apple的方法:

  1. 他们的广告、营销和零售经验。
  2. 对现有产品的增量修订版本改进。
  3. 大赌注新产品,以及现有产品的全面检修/重新思考。

首先是 - 我重申 - 主要是主观的我认为Apple的广告从未如此好过,但没有办法用事实支持那些想要不同意的人会不同意在零售业方面,苹果以每平方英尺的收入长期领先于整个行业招聘Angela Ahrendts多年来一直被誉为最佳行政签约之一。

The second is something you can judge annually, and I’d say the scorecard, post-Jobs, is very strongiPhone,iPad,苹果笔记本电脑、iMac和Mac Pro阵容都大大提高了与2011年持平。

第三个 - 大赌注新产品 - 无疑是苹果公司长期成功的最重要因素,但是你无法每年评判从历史上看,这些大型新事物只有两三次从各方面来看,史蒂夫乔布斯都有一份非凡的礼物来提供这类产品在乔布斯之后,苹果公司面临的最大问题是该公司是否可以在没有他的情况下提供此类产品我并不是说他们已经这样做了,我也不是说他们在这方面已经证明了什么。我们不知道。

坚持认为,如果没有史蒂夫·乔布斯,苹果可能会成为一家只有增量的公司然而,认为他们已经进入这种状态的外部迹象是不合理的考虑一下凯恩的作品中的这句话,如上所述:

Apple’s latest version of its mobile operating system, iOS 7, looks pretty but is full of bugs and flaws.

我刻意将第二类创新称为“大赌注”他们是在抓住机会我认为iPad Air和iPad Mini是渐进式创新的明显迹象,但它们不是大赌注 - 鉴于iPad已经很受欢迎,使它更小,更薄,更轻,更快没有机会首先推出平板电脑是有机会的首先进入手机行业是有机会的。

iOS 7是迄今为止最好的迹象表明苹果公司仍然愿意冒险他们把一个广受欢迎的平台,还越来越受欢迎在陡峭的利率,调整每一个方面的视觉设计和概念设计的几个方面在10个月(该公司对iOS 7上的工作开始之后才开始异常开放行政重组推翻了Scott Forstall并让Jony Ive负责所有设计,硬件和软件。)

IOS 7 buggier比以前的大多数iOS版本(Version 7.1, currently in beta testing but poised to ship soon, is much improved in this regard, in my experience.) But what’s the alternative? How could Apple have done better in Kane’s eyes? Should they have waited another year to unveil this new design? It was rocky because they did a lot in a short period of time这是积极和大胆的。

在乔布斯的领导下,iOS 7可能不那么多了问题不在于苹果的工程师不够努力,或因管理不善问题是,苹果试图做太多太快在我看来这是史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)推动的东西Mac OS X 10.0 was downright awful; 10.1 and 10.2 were improvements but still bad(我认为问题不在于7.0首先是错误的,而是7.1需要很长时间才能发货。)

在关于后乔布斯苹果和创新的争论中解雇iOS 7是“你还打你的妻子吗?“没有赢的设置苹果大举和凯恩驳斥了工作不可避免的错误和缺点但另一种选择 - 继续使用之前的iOS设计一年,同时允许iOS 7设计在闭门造车中成熟 - 会让苹果公司开始指责他们会停滞不前。

关于Apple持续提供突破性新产品的能力,一个简单的事实就是我们必须等待。

我的感觉是,我们可能不需要等待更长时间。


  1. 正如这篇文章所表明的那样,凯恩的作品让我感到震惊,远远低于纽约人无可挑剔的高标准它在线运行但不是印刷品,这让人联想到蒂莫西·吴(Timothy Wu)一年前同样有问题↩︎

  2. 或者更好地说,公司,复数,因为皮克斯也是如此Pixar is greater than the sum of its movies. ↩︎