关于模型分析Apple Watch销售情况的思考

Lorraine Luk和Daisuke Wakabayashi今天报道了华尔街日报,“苹果公司为初次运行订购超过500万只手表”

Apple has asked its suppliers in Asia to make a combined five to six million units of its three Apple Watch models during the first quarter ahead of the product’s release in April, according to people familiar with the matter.

我会大打赌 - 这些数字来自供应链来源,而不是苹果高管我不明白为什么Apple的任何人都会看到泄漏这些数字的战略优势,尤其是Sport,Regular和Edition模型之间的分歧:

Half of the first-quarter production order is earmarked for the entry-level Apple Watch Sport model, while the mid-tier Apple Watch is expected to account for one-third of output, one of these people said.

Orders for Apple Watch Edition — the high-end model featuring 18-karat gold casing — are relatively small in the first quarter but Apple plans to start producing more than one million units per month in the second quarter, the person saidAnalysts expect demand for the high-end watches to be strong in China where Apple’s sales are booming.

即使在最初的一个季度,“500万到600万”中的17%也是850,000到1,000,000个单位这对于一款价格昂贵的车型来说非常重要对我来说更有意思的是,根据WSJ的报告,Apple确实会在中国组装Edition版本我无所事事地想知道,苹果是否可以在美国组装版本模型,就像他们与Mac专业版一样,以进一步提升他们的声望每季度有一百万或更多的单位,我可以看出它们为什么会这样为了实现规模,我在中国这样做,但我相信,在中国组装奢侈品的手表行业是前所未有的。

Apple Watch Sport售价349美元Apple hasn’t announced pricing for the other models, but Apple Watch Edition is expected to be among the most expensive products the company has ever sold, likely surpassing the $4,000 Mac Pro computer.

1991年我在Drexel大学时,我的宿舍里有一个孩子价值12,000美元的Mac IIfx(他是个骗子的混蛋幽灵因此,记录 - 特别是通货膨胀调整 - 非常高。

除了古代的Mac历史,考虑数字如果Apple实际上每季度销售100万个版本的单位,并且它们的售价为5,000美元,那么每季度的收入为50亿美元 -仅适用于黄金版车型如果ASP接近10,000美元,我还在想有可能,加倍。

350美元的300万运动单位“仅”10亿美元左右200万不锈钢常规单位的平均售价为1,000美元,将额外增加20亿美元。

所以作为一个企业 -如果华尔街日报的消息来源是正确的,1如果Apple正确预测需求[2]- Apple Watch的收入将由黄金版单位占主导地位,占所有其他型号合计收入的两倍或更多The Edition models would thus do to the Apple Watch lineup as a whole what the iPhone, iPad, and Macintosh do to the entire phone, tablet, and PC industries, respectively: achieve a decided majority of the profits with a decided minority of the unit sales.


  1. That’s a very big “if” for Luk and Wakabayashi, as I’ll write tomorrow. ↩︎

  2. For some quick perspective on that, Wikipedia pegs Rolex’s sales at 2,000 watches per day,  ↩︎

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