什么上升

上周末,Bryan Clark为TheNextWeb拍摄的这首作品引起了我的注意 - “我们已经达到了-也许通过峰值苹果:叙事需要改变的原因“:

Last month, Apple’s latest earnings call announced its “most successful year ever.” The numbers were reported, the stories were spun and Wall Street basically anointed Apple the god of capitalism.

他们都是错误的。

苹果没有错——2015财政年度是苹果最成功的一年,收入和利润的目标措施我想你可以定义“最成功的一年”在其他方面,像百分比增长或股票价格上涨,但收入和利润是相当公平的措施。

我错过了“华尔街基本上膏苹果资本主义”的神我注意到的是,苹果的股价上升收益公布后的第二天约占2%此后又回落到第四季度财报公布前的水平。

The actual story, the story we should be telling, involves a different narrativeApple is the largest company in the world, but success is fleetingWhile the numbers are impressive, they don’t come close to painting an accurate picture about how much trouble Apple is really in.

苹果在史蒂夫乔布斯的崛起是历史性的Its fall under Tim Cook is going to be much slower, more painful.

摔倒通常比崛起更痛苦写一个句子呢?

如果苹果属于库克远远低于中国的崛起在史蒂夫·乔布斯,需要20或30年苹果的复兴是长期的,缓慢的,且相对稳定。

苹果生活和死亡的iPhoneiPad sales are flat, iPod’s are all but irrelevant, and while Mac sales are up, they’re nowhere close to the workhorse that can continue to carry Apple should they experience a downturn in iPhone sales. There is no Plan B.

一看这些数字就会讲一个非常具有决定性的故事。

iPhone销售收入的百分比:

  • 2012年:46.38%
  • 2013年:52.07%
  • 2014年):56.21%
  • 2015年):62.54%

这是克拉克作品的一部分引起了我的注意现在这是一个常见的副作用 - 只需搜索谷歌“Apple过于依赖iPhone”。

Clark认为这听起来是因为Apple的其他业务正在下滑,而事实是iPhone继续以令人惊讶的速度增长,即使Apple的其他成功产品也无法与之匹敌Is it worrisome that iPad sales continue to decline? SureWould it be better for Apple if the iPad were selling in iPhone-esque quantities? Of course但iPad仍然销售了990万台,上季度创造了43亿美元的收入。

认为苹果公司因为iPhone如此受欢迎而陷入困境就像争辩说90年代的芝加哥公牛队因为迈克尔·乔丹这么好而陷入困境乔丹无法永远发挥作用,而iPhone永远不会成为世界上最赚钱的产品但与此同时,公牛队几乎是无与伦比的,至少现在,苹果公司的利润也不可思议。1就像它是如何更好的爱过而失败,也不要从来未曾有过一次爱,最好有巨大的成功一段时间比从未取得巨大的成功对吧?

我不明白的是为什么苹果会挑出奇异的成功,但其他公司没有。去年谷歌的收入的92%来自于网络广告更重要的是,我不明白为什么苹果没有iPhone的企业这么快就一笔勾销,只是因为他们比iPhone要小得多。

苹果公司上个季度的总收入是515亿美元iPhone占322亿美元,这意味着苹果的没有iPhone业务实现收入约193亿美元所有微软在相同的三个月:约210亿美元全是谷歌:187.8亿美元。Facebook的:45亿美元带走所有出售的iPhone - 所有这些 - 而苹果公司本季剩余的业务几乎与微软一样大,比谷歌大,是Facebook的四倍多。这是7 - 9月一季,而不是度假去年第四季度,苹果是最强的。

世界上没有任何东西可以与苹果的iPhone业务相比,包括苹果公司的其他产品但这里multi-billion-per-quarter业务(Mac),multi-billion-per-quarter业务(iPad),有“服务“师比Facebook产生更多的收入,一个“其他”类别(手表,苹果电视,节拍,iPod)在休季预定30亿美元,很明显,苹果没有iphone的企业联合,一个大规模的企业。

这是关于iPad Pro是否会制作的Larry Dignon专栏iPad的材料再次出现在Apple上“:

Apple’s iPad sales are on the borderline of being immaterial to the company, but some analysts are betting that enterprise sales of the iPad Pro can turn the product line around[…]

Nevertheless, the iPad franchise is sucking wind relative to the iPhoneApple’s annual report shows the iPad is 10 percent of overall salesOnce a business falls below 10 percent a company doesn’t have to break it outIn other words, the iPad could be lumped into “other” with the Apple Watch and iPod if current trends continue.

这是一个产品,就其本身而言,产生几乎完全相同的收入上个季度因为所有谷歌的根本不用广告就能业务了整个财政年度但苹果公司,被认为是不平衡和势头依赖于一个单一的产品。

名字的产品介绍在过去的五年里,比iPad更成功,要么收入和利润的制造商,或总小时的用户的日常使用和客户满意度我想不出一个。

现在考虑Apple Watch。快公司在7月份称其为“翻牌”这是Quora的一个人 - Jason Lancaster,一个叫做网站的编辑准确的自动建议- 回答是肯定的,Apple是否“已经失去了自驾车市场”(不开玩笑):

第三,苹果可能已达到顶峰Call me a hater, but what reason is there to assume Apple’s reputation is going to stay where it is? The watch was a flop, and their only consistent source of success is the iPhone, as the market for Macs and iPads is drying up (as it is for all computer hardware companies).

忘记Mac销售的事实生长或者iPad的销量虽然在下降,但每季度仍然大约为1000万我对此的喜爱是兰开斯特在翻牌时将手表注销 - 他甚至使用了过去式。

这是翻牌的样子:

Apple has shipped seven million Apple Watches since its introduction this spring, giving the technology giant a firm lead in the nascent smartwatch market, according to researcher Canalys.

That number falls shy of some Wall Street analysts’ expectations for Apple’s first new device category since 2010But, for perspective, consider this: Apple sold more smartwatches from April through September than all other vendors combined sold over the past five quarters, Canalys reports.

如果我们估计Apple Watch的平均售价为500美元(合理),今年迄今为止的收入为35亿美元 - 在假日季度之前几乎肯定是每年手表销售最强劲的。


回到Bryan Clark的TheNextWeb篇:

Steve Jobs is almost entirely responsible for Apple’s cult-like following.

By streamlining the company in an attempt to make it profitable, the same vision started to makes its way through every product Apple createdRather than bloated and flashy, Jobs created a movement of decidedly minimalist devices that required not much more than an occasional charge and a user that knew where the power button was.

Between aesthetically pleasing design, rock-solid hardware, and software that responded as if it were built for the machine — not in spite of it — Apple culture became a cult of Jobs-worshipping consumers willing to buy anything with a lowercase “i” in front of it.

这从来没有发生过G4 Cube没卖iPod高保真不卖那些不仅仅是非热门产品 - 它们都是史蒂夫乔布斯自己真正喜欢的产品我听说他有一堆未启封的iPod音响在他的办公室苹果产品从未被大众市场盲目接受 - 它们的优点和满足实际需求的成功。正如我两年前写的:

To posit that Apple customers are somehow different, that when they feel screwed by Apple their response is to go back for more, is “Cult of Mac” logic — the supposition that most Apple customers are irrational zealots or trend followers who just mindlessly buy anything with an Apple logo on itThe truth is the opposite: Apple’s business is making customers happy, and keeping them happyThey make products for discriminating people who have higher standards andtolerance for design flaws or problems.

Clark最后告诉我们Apple最大的问题是什么:

There are larger issues on the horizon: For example, how does Apple compete with Windows and Android?

Both have proven to be amazingly adept in recent years not only at competing with Apple in form factor, but functionality as well.

Two companies that are innovating, not searching for identity outside of a singular product.

两家公司正在上升,而不是下跌。

Windows和Android,得到了它。

The Apple Watch is great, but it’s never going to carry Apple like the iPhone until it works like oneThe watch is undeniably cool, but it really fails to do anything better than your phone.

To make matters worse, you have to have an iPhone close by in order to even use most of its featuresSimilar Android models are self-contained and only require an occasional sync.

The autonomous car project sounds promising, but competing against Google and Tesla in addition to auto industry giants like Lexus and Mercedes is an uphill battle full of technology challenges, government red tape and changing century-old transportation conventions.

The best I can gather from this mishmash of a conclusion is that Apple Watch should have somehow debuted as a first-generation product that could stand toe-to-toe with the iPhone (which is now in its ninth generation), and that Apple’s car product should already be here如果没有关于苹果汽车的谣言,我们会听到苹果公司将错过下一个技术行业中断的大型行业但因为那里谣言和线索指向一个苹果车,我们听说汽车太困难,建立公司盘踞。Ed Colligan的线- “PC guys are not going to just figure this out他们不会走。”——也是一个行业长期存在的巨头,谷歌,技术挑战,政府的繁文缛节,和世纪的约定减去“政府繁文缛节”,这也是对手表和家庭娱乐系统行业的一个很好的描述。

我不是在这里争论Colligan的反面 - 苹果在这些新领域的成功是预定的 - 因为那将是愚蠢的但这只是愚蠢的认为,苹果不能成功——或者说,任何少于iPhone-sized成功在一个新的努力失败。


  1. 然而,iPhone不太可能在其职业生涯的黄金时期休假一年玩棒球↩︎

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