Apple’s revenue and profit for the fiscal second quarter ended March 26 both missed analysts’ expectationsThe company also projected that revenue in the current quarter would fall far short of expectations.
值得注意的是,苹果公司的实际结果非常符合公司自己的指导季,三个月前(Revenue was within guidance, but gross margins were slightly low.) A year-over-year decline is never good news, and is a possible harbinger of a sustained decline, but these numbers, along with Apple’s guidance for the June quarter,不应该是一个惊喜任何关注当然不足以证明今天的公司的股价下跌6.25%,导致公司的市值约为400亿美元这不仅仅是Netflix的价值欢迎来到赌场。
But for all of the concerns about Apple’s growth, the company still generated profits in the March quarter that are expected to exceed the combined earnings of technology peers Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc., and Amazon.com Inc.
A concerning quarter? Yes.
Surprising? Shouldn’t have been.
Alarming? Not even close.
What explains the hysterical response — both from investors, and from the business and tech news media? I long ago gave up trying to understand it但我提醒的斯坦福棉花糖实验维基百科:
The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a series of studies on delayed gratification in the late 1960s and early 1970s led by psychologist Walter Mischel, then a professor at Stanford UniversityIn these studies, a child was offered a choice between one small reward provided immediately or two small rewards (i.e., a larger later reward) if they waited for a short period, approximately 15 minutes, during which the tester left the room and then returned(The reward was sometimes a marshmallow, but often a cookie or a pretzel.) In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), and other life measures.
但看看事情怎么样了在iPhone 6Had the trend of 2012–2014 continued through 2015, iPhone sales last quarter would have been 65–70 millionInstead they were just under 75 millionIt’s only in comparison to the huge holiday quarter of 2014 that last quarter looks dull.
I’m reminded of the devotion climate change deniers had to the year 1998Because of an intense El Niño that year, global temperatures rose well above the trend line, and it remained the hottest year on record for several yearsDeniers hit upon this fact, and claimed that全球变暖已经停止, even though the overall warming trend had continuedThe iPhone 6 was Apple’s El Niño.
If sales don’t improve with the iPhone 7, I’ll be willing to believe we’ve reached “peak iPhone.” Until then, the only problem I see is that the iPhone 6 was too successful.
The iPhone has always been a seasonal product, but the seasonality changed with the iPhone 4S, which debuted in October 2011前四个iPhone推出6月/ 7月,和Verizon / CDMA版iPhone 4在2011年1月首次亮相我们叫现代iPhone 4 s的季节性时代——那些9月或10月初发布,支持更多的轻型航母10月至12月是“Q1”苹果公司的财务日历,在这个现代化的时代,这是卖得最好的季度首先，因为这是新手机到货的季度，数以千万计的人想购买它们立即世界上没有任何产品可以像iPhone一样产生“开放周末”销售除了其他苹果产品和好莱坞主要电影之外，我甚至无法想到人们谈论开周末销售的另一种产品第二个因素是它是假日季度。
第二季度 - 一月到三月 - 一直呈现从第一季度开始的下降这是编号为Q2 iPhone销量在现代(和2011比较):
|2014年第二季度(iPhone 5 s)||43.7|