苹果和可怕的,可怕的,没有好,非常糟糕的iPhone销量的下降

一些必要的视角苹果自2003年以来首次季度销售额同比下降,《华尔街日报》从Daisuke若林史江:

Apple’s revenue and profit for the fiscal second quarter ended March 26 both missed analysts’ expectationsThe company also projected that revenue in the current quarter would fall far short of expectations.

值得注意的是,苹果公司的实际结果非常符合公司自己的指导季,三个月前(Revenue was within guidance, but gross margins were slightly low.) A year-over-year decline is never good news, and is a possible harbinger of a sustained decline, but these numbers, along with Apple’s guidance for the June quarter,不应该是一个惊喜任何关注当然不足以证明今天的公司的股价下跌6.25%,导致公司的市值约为400亿美元这不仅仅是Netflix的价值欢迎来到赌场。

若林史江继续说:

But for all of the concerns about Apple’s growth, the company still generated profits in the March quarter that are expected to exceed the combined earnings of technology peers Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc., and Amazon.com Inc.

预计亚马逊不会宣布结果在周四之前,他们著名的战略放弃利润为了收入增长因此,让我们把它们拿出来,用一个有着巨大利润历史的公司取代它们,微软仍然是正确的:105亿美元的利润,苹果赢得了本季度比字母(4.2美元),Facebook(1.5美元),微软($ 3.8 b)的总和后就是一个几乎深不可测的超过50个季度同比增长——你甚至达到一个高度,无疑非常糟糕的季度仍然巨大,行业领先的利润。1

A concerning quarter? Yes.

Surprising? Shouldn’t have been.

Alarming? Not even close.


What explains the hysterical response — both from investors, and from the business and tech news media? I long ago gave up trying to understand it但我提醒的斯坦福棉花糖实验维基百科:

The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a series of studies on delayed gratification in the late 1960s and early 1970s led by psychologist Walter Mischel, then a professor at Stanford UniversityIn these studies, a child was offered a choice between one small reward provided immediately or two small rewards (i.e., a larger later reward) if they waited for a short period, approximately 15 minutes, during which the tester left the room and then returned(The reward was sometimes a marshmallow, but often a cookie or a pretzel.) In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), and other life measures.

我认为很多投资者和新闻媒体的成员就像那些孩子迫不及待:没有任何能力看过去未来几个月。


博士Drang,三个月前写的:

但看看事情怎么样了在iPhone 6Had the trend of 2012–2014 continued through 2015, iPhone sales last quarter would have been 65–70 millionInstead they were just under 75 millionIt’s only in comparison to the huge holiday quarter of 2014 that last quarter looks dull.

I’m reminded of the devotion climate change deniers had to the year 1998Because of an intense El Niño that year, global temperatures rose well above the trend line, and it remained the hottest year on record for several yearsDeniers hit upon this fact, and claimed that全球变暖已经停止, even though the overall warming trend had continuedThe iPhone 6 was Apple’s El Niño.

If sales don’t improve with the iPhone 7, I’ll be willing to believe we’ve reached “peak iPhone.” Until then, the only problem I see is that the iPhone 6 was too successful.

他的文章有很好的图表。

我想博士它迫切要求指甲我们可能看到“iPhone峰值”但它可能仅仅是一个统计上的昙花一现,这在很大程度上是由于iPhone 6的特殊受欢迎程度,以及其他因素,如中国经济和货币汇率根本没有足够的数据可以知道(值得关注这里的iPhone,苹果因为它占三分之二的收入至少在接下来的几年里,随着iPhone的发展,苹果也走了。)

The iPhone has always been a seasonal product, but the seasonality changed with the iPhone 4S, which debuted in October 2011前四个iPhone推出6月/ 7月,和Verizon / CDMA版iPhone 4在2011年1月首次亮相我们叫现代iPhone 4 s的季节性时代——那些9月或10月初发布,支持更多的轻型航母10月至12月是“Q1”苹果公司的财务日历,在这个现代化的时代,这是卖得最好的季度首先,因为这是新手机到货的季度,数以千万计的人想购买它们立即世界上没有任何产品可以像iPhone一样产生“开放周末”销售除了其他苹果产品和好莱坞主要电影之外,我甚至无法想到人们谈论开周末销售的另一种产品第二个因素是它是假日季度。

第二季度 - 一月到三月 - 一直呈现从第一季度开始的下降这是编号为Q2 iPhone销量在现代(和2011比较):

单位销售额(百万)
2011年第2季度(iPhone 4) 18.7
2012年第二季度(iPhone 4S) 35.1
2013年第二季度(iPhone 5) 37.4
2014年第二季度(iPhone 5 s) 43.7
2015年第二季度iPhone(6) 61.2
2016年第二季度(iPhone 6S) 51.2

相同的数字(减去pre-modern-era 2011)图:

以图表形式,你可以看到一个异常与iPhone去年是6但鉴于您几乎可以绘制一条连接图表中其他四个点的直线,我不愿意将其称为峰值但即使我们看到恢复增长,我们可能还需要几年的时间才能看到另一个Q2销量超过6000万台。


  1. 从另一个角度来看,Shira Ovide彭博:“苹果以任何标准衡量,除了自己的历史标准——是一个不可思议的公司其105亿美元的净收益在过去三个月多了每年除了15家公司的利润在标准普尔500指数,根据彭博社的数据。”↩︎