唐纳德特朗普真的想赢吗?

Nate Silver,“特朗普正在加倍失败的战略“:

So it’s not surprising that Trump has undertaken a major shakeup of his campaign, hiring Bannon and promoting the pollster Kellyanne ConwayCampaign Chairman Paul Manafort has effectively been demotedBut rather than make a much-expected “pivot” toward general election voters — as Manafort had reportedly been pushing for — the new plan is to “let Trump be Trump,” doubling down on the strategies that Trump used to win the nomination, including an emphasis on nationalism, populism and “brutal fights with Clinton”[...]

If you trust the polls, this seems like a fundamental strategic errorTrump is running worse than Mitt Romney among almost all demographic groups; white men without a college degree are the most prominent exceptionBut there aren’t enough of those men to form a majority or really even to come all that close.

如果他的目标是赢得选举,这是一个疯狂的策略但是如果特朗普怎么办?不想赢? Back in March, former特朗普战略家Stephanie Cegielski为XO Jane写了一篇令人大开眼界的作品声称目标永远不会赢:

Even Trump’s most trusted advisors didn’t expect him to fare this well.

Almost a year ago, recruited for my public relations and public policy expertise, I sat in Trump Tower being told that the goal was to get The Donald to poll in double digits and come in second in delegate count就是这样。

The Trump camp would have been satisfied to see him polling at 12% and taking second place to a candidate who might hold 50%His candidacy was a protest candidacy.

即使这是真的,我不同意将他描述为“抗议候选人”从根本上说,他是一名自我推销的候选人他这样做是为了宣传特朗普品牌并增加他的个人名气他的支持来自于那些人看到他是抗议候选人,但特朗普本人只关心特朗普,不关心移民或中东外交事务,也不关心谁被提名为最高法院有证据表明,他对这些问题的立场已遍布整个地图。

我从一开始就发现Cegielski的大胆声明是可信的这对我来说可能是一厢情愿的想法,因为我没有他是总统很容易相信你想要的是真实的这种想法导致很多米特罗姆尼支持者(包括罗姆尼本人)相信因为“倾斜“尽管所有主要民意调查显示他都输了,但罗姆尼将在2012年击败奥巴马基本的想法是,基于美国的民意调查“偏向”支持民主党候选人,而且当“不受约束”时,你可以看到罗姆尼实际上是赢了但是,从来没有任何实际证据表明民意调查有所偏差 - 共和党人只是因为他们希望这是真的而买入它。

但在我看来,特朗普的整个竞选策略在这种情况下更有意义我认为特朗普认为是一个候选人为总统带来很多乐趣他喜欢大人群和他自己声音的声音他喜欢不停地看电视新闻,每天都在每家报纸的头版我认为他实际上找到了存在总统非常无聊从各方面来看,即使是像里根和乔治W这样的总统,这也是很多工作布什委托较小的决策,很少关注政策细节的复杂性。

[更新:作为特朗普知道工作本身会让他厌烦的证据,请注意“纽约时报”报道如下:

One day this past May, Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., reached out to a senior adviser to GovJohn Kasich of Ohio, who left the presidential race just a few weeks beforeAs a candidate, Kasich declared in March that Trump was “really not prepared to be president of the United States,” and the following month he took the highly unusual step of coordinating with his rival Senator Ted Cruz in an effort to deny Trump the nomination. But according to the Kasich adviser (who spoke only under the condition that he not be named), Donald Jrwanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?

When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.

那么,顾问问道,特朗普会负责什么呢?

“让美国再次成为伟大”是随意的答复。

卡西奇本人证实了这个电话在接受CNN的Jake Tapper采访时这是一个非凡的提议,但不可否认,并不是不想赢得大选不过,这肯定是在频谱上我怀疑它取决于认知失调 - 特朗普不想失去(当然不是在一个令人尴尬的山体滑坡),但也不想履行总统的工作。

昨天为赫芬顿邮报写的迈克尔摩尔声称知道特朗普不想赢的事实。他只是试图获得更好的电视优惠

So, on June 16 of last year, he rode down his golden escalator and opened his mouthWith no campaign staff, no 50-state campaign infrastructure — neither of which he needed because, remember, this wasn’t going to be a real campaign — and with no prepared script, he went off the rails at his kick-off press conference, calling Mexicans “rapists” and “drug dealers” and pledging to build a wall to keep them all outJaws in the room were agape. His comments were so offensive, NBC, far from offering him a bigger paycheck, immediately fired him with this terse statement: “Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with MrTrump.” NBC said it was also canceling the beauty pageants owned by Trump: Miss USA and Miss Universe繁荣。

特朗普惊呆了这笔交易的艺术很多He never expected this, but he stuck to his plan anyway to increase his “value” in the eyes of the other networks by showing them how many millions of Americans wanted Him to be their Leader.

摩尔没有透露他的信息来源,但暗示它来自NBC的某个人拿一粒盐但它完全与Cegielski声称他们只想获得第二名并在此过程中做了很多展示。

我在这种情况下遇到的困难是特朗普的预定终结游戏If it’s true Trump doesn’t want to be president, how does he get out of this while saving face? As Nate Silver wrote above, if he wanted to try to win, or least wanted to make the election as close as possible, he’d be campaigning hard to the center相反,他正在向右奔跑。

What if Trump’s goal, now that he’s the Republican nominee, remains the same as it was a year ago when he announced his candidacy? Not to become president, but to be on TV and make a lot of money doing it但现在,他可以拥有自己的频道,而不是成为其他人网络节目的明星(或者在典型特朗普时尚,拥有少数股权,但他的名字全都在上面。)

为新共和国撰稿的Jeet Heer阐述了这一案例,在特朗普命名后“媒体煽动史蒂夫·班农(Steve Bannon)将继续他的竞选活动:

But if the Trump campaign is an epic disaster, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t know what he’s doingIn fact, by cementing ties with Breitbart and寻求建议from disgraced former Fox News head Roger Ailes, Trump has sent his strongest signal yet that long-held suspicions about his media-mogul aspirations are true. He’s using the election to develop an intensely loyal audience that occupies a special niche: those who think Fox News is too mainstreamWho better to help him cash in on such an effort than Bannon and Ailes?

对媒体渠道有足够需求的想法在右边福克斯新闻是非同寻常的,但特朗普相当多的支持者表示可能存在福克斯新闻是共和党的网络(或作为布什的演讲撰稿人大卫弗鲁姆在2010年评论道,“共和党人最初认为福克斯为我们工作,现在我们发现我们为福克斯工作。”)特朗普选民不支持他尽管the fact that he’s touting ideas that are almost completely contrary to traditional Republican policies; they’re supporting him因为他的想法与传统的共和党政策背道而驰有意义的是,这些人对传统的共和党新闻网络不满意他们没有足够的人来赢得选举团,但是他们有足够多的人来组成一个成功的媒体渠道的观众。

The New York Times reported yesterday

最近几个月,MrTrump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have quietly explored becoming involved with a media holding, either by investing in one or by taking one over, according to a person close to Mr特朗普听取了有关这些讨论的简报。

至少,该活动的主页提供了先生Trump, who has begun to limit his national media appearances to conservative outlets, an opportunity to build his audience and steer his followers toward the combative Breitbart site.

(库什纳是纽约观察家的出版商。)

简而言之,特朗普并没有试图吸引更多的人,这就是你赢得选举的方式他试图更多地吸引已经支持他的人这就是你如何为“alt-right”媒体公司建立一个受众。

共和党总统候选人实际上并不想成为总统的观点是异乎寻常的但唐纳德特朗普异乎寻常我觉得这个场景引人注目的是,这并不意味着特朗普是愚蠢的以下是我个人用来描述特朗普的形容词的简短列表:应受谴责拘泥鲁莽厌恶自私漠不关心根据知情但我不会用的一个词是stupid愚昧,是的,但不是愚蠢的。

如果特朗普试图赢得大选,他过去几周所做的事情没有任何意义但如果他的目标是要赢,那么也许他像狐狸一样疯狂一只狐狸,不论是民间话语,共和国的稳定,还是共和党的未来 - 都是一只狐狸。