明斯特的模型

Gene Munster,现在在Loup Ventures,发布了针对Apple的5年预测

Our best guess is that Apple Glasses, an AR-focused wearable, will be released mid FY20This is based on the significant resources Apple is putting into AR, including ARKit and the recent SensoMotoric Instruments acquisitionWe believe Apple see’s [SIC] the AR future as a combination of the iPhone and some form of a wearable.

专用的AR眼镜对主流,日常使用,增强现实没有多大意义(他们非常有意义专门使用,就像波音公司今天使用Google Glass帮助组装飞机一样。)手机是休闲增强现实的完美外形 - 相机很棒,显示效果很好,而且我们都已将它们放在口袋里人们不想一直戴眼镜,即使他们这样做,增强现实对于一组完全不同的东西比触摸屏界面有用也是有用和有趣的。

我很难想象我们今天在手机上做的任何事情都会更好地使用AR眼镜。什么Apple may well be working on AR glasses, but if they are, the use cases are almost certainly new and different from those of the phone, and I would wager that such glasses would be like Apple Watch — a peripheral for your iPhone, not a replacement for it.

ARKit的存在是因为ARKit将在iPhone和iPad上变得有用和有趣今天如果它在iPhone和iPad上没用,那么Apple就不会把它添加到iOS上(考虑一下:十年前Mac OS X没有添加任何内容来“为iPhone编写基于触摸屏的应用程序奠定基础。”

看看一些基于ARKit的应用程序示例苹果公司在WWDC上宣布它已经过去三周了。看看TomásGarcía的这个例子看一下Apple在iOS 11 Maps中使用Flyover模式所做的工作(如果您正在运行iOS 11测试版,请搜索主要城市的名称,然后点按“天桥”按钮在iOS 10及更早版本中,Flyover会引导您沿着设定的路径前进,您可以触摸屏幕来平移或扭曲视图在iOS 11中,您可以像移动相机一样移动iPhone,并且可以在现实世界中走动,以便像哥斯拉这样的屏幕城市大步前进。)

ARKit并未为Apple未来进入增强现实奠定基础ARKitApple进军增强现实。

回到明斯特:

AirPods:比Apple Watch更大。Over the next 10 years, we anticipate that AirPods will be bigger than the Apple Watch as the product evolves from simple wireless headphones to a wearable, augmented audio deviceWhile both AirPods and Apple Watch should continue to grow, we see AirPods contributing about the same amount of revenue as Apple Watch by FY22We expect the AirPods ASP to increase from $159 today to $200 in FY22 as the product shifts to augmented audio.

我认为明斯特完全倒退了AirPods只是无线耳机AR设备是iPhone,而AirPods只是iPhone的一个出色的音频输出设备将它们视为独立产品是没有意义的它们可以让您更好地使用现有Apple产品获得音频体验而已。

我认为AirPods的平均售价会下降随着时间的推移,不会升起如果苹果今天可以以99美元的价格出售它们,我认为它们会在某些时候,我认为他们希望将它们包含在新的iPhone手机中。

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